Sexual orientation :
What will happen in 2012 ? Hard to say. The only person declared for President is Romney.
How Sarah Palin could win
In 2008, democrats insured that McCain would be the GOP nominee by crossing lines to vote in GOP primaries. If the dems cross lines again, to vote against Romney, for Palin, it'll backfire on them. How ?
Let us harken back to 1992. No one gave Perot, ever, a single chance against either Bush or Clinton. In the first three way debate, Bush and Clinton took to calling each other names. Perot busted in with "When are we going to stop calling names and fix what's wrong with America ?"
The audience went nuts. If the election were held that night, Perot would've won-by a HUGE margin.
If it's Palin against Obama, Obama will have to spend the entire campaign ducking a debate with her. You might think her stupid, but she won the debate with ol Joe two years ago.
No one reads from a teleprompter better than Obama, but away from a teleprompter, he's the king of "Um...uhh, uh, uh uh...umm...give me a minute...ummmm....", then when he panics, he starts quoting Che Guevara, Marx, and Lenin.
Unlike McCain, Palin will go for the jugular. She'll smoke Obama in the debate(s) and his "ummmm...uh, uh, uh..wait a minute" will be centerpiece on her ad campaign.
The northeast, Ohio, and West Coast will go for Obama, but the campaign, will again, hinge on Florida. Right now Obama is as popular as dog shit in many places, and Marc Rubio's victory in Florida means Obama won't have anywhere near the success in 2012 as he did in 08.