Is political reform sweeping through the middle east

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by richief

So the opposition already realise where their money comes from and are taking strides to protect it. Bahrain a country built on greed and oil, now the oil is gone they need tourists, but sand is not that interesting so they need the western money that the F1 brings. Something about the whole place stinks, just like Saudi and all the other monarchies around the gulf, I say pull out and let the whole place rot.

Yeah but instead of pulling out of those monarchies lots of US and Western companies are moving their headquarters to them.

But I do think Bahrain is more favored and more protected than most.

[stumbler]

While the killing continues in Syria despite having UN observers the newest development seems to be massive protests in Egypt. Most of the protests are against military rule. But there are sizable factions also protesting the disqualification of several presidential candidates including some from the former administration and another from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Here's a story on them.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1439802.html

[stumbler]

This is just kind of amazing to me when I try to imagine how the Egyptian people might feel today and what will come out of the first free election in their lives. And the results should be interesting, because the most recent opinion polls showed Egyptians shifting away from the Islamist candidates.

Egyptians vote to elect new president
Voters flock to polling stations across the country in election which could herald end of decades of authoritarian rule.

Egyptians are heading to polling stations across the country in the country's first democratic presidential election.


Fifty million people are eligible to cast their ballots, and voter turnout was expected to be high as two days of voting began on Wednesday.
Voters had already formed lines outside some polling stations before they opened at 8am local time (06:00 GMT).


Jamal Elshayyal, reporting from a voting station in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, where a few hundred women lined up, said there was a "huge euphoria as people are finally getting to choose who will rule the country."


Mounira Fawaz, 21, was one of the early voters. With the little finger on her right hand dyed with purple ink, she told Al Jazeera: "I feel freedom and for the first time, my voice and opinion really counts."


Al Jazeera's Mike Hanna said there was also a high turnout at polling stations in the capital, Cairo, where many people said they had come to vote early to avoid the blistering heat expected later in the day.


The election is the final phase of a tumultuous transition marred by violence, protests and political deadlock, overseen by the ruling military council after a popular uprising toppled longtime President Hosni Mubarak last year.


With none of the 13 candidates expected to secure more than half the votes to win outright in the first round, a runoff between the top two is likely to be in June.


Economy in focus
Among the contenders is former foreign minister and Arab League chief Amr Moussa, who is seen as an experienced politician and diplomat but like Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, is accused of belonging to the old
regime.


The powerful Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohamed Morsi faces competition from Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a former member of the Islamist movement who portrays himself as a consensus choice with a wide range of support.


Campaigning has been intense in the weeks leading up to the poll, with newspapers carrying interviews and campaign adverts. Banners and posters festoon the streets.


The main issue for voters is the Egyptian economy, which was already stagnant before the revolution and has only gotten worse since.
Nearly half of Egyptians live at or below the poverty line, defined as $2 per day, and youth unemployment is 25 per cent.


Another issue which many voters will consider when choosing their candidate is security, according to Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh, reporting from the Red Sea port city of Suez,


"In the past 15 months after the revolution, security has been a top concern for Egyptians," she said."There has been lawlessness, all sorts of reports of kidnappings, car jackings, home invasions - the kind of violence this country was never used to."


Security concerns
Our correspondent said questions had been raised "whether the police force, which was discredited during the 18-day revolution, is unable, or simply unwilling, to handle security in the country".
The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), in power since Mubarak's ouster, has called on Egyptians to turn out en masse to the polls, while warning against any "violation".


"The participation of citizens in the presidential election is the best guarantee of the transparency and security of the electoral process," Mohammed al-Assar, a member of the SCAF, was quoted as saying by state news agency MENA.


"We will not allow any violation or [attempt] to influence the electoral process or the voters," he added, saying that any person who broke the law would be treated "firmly and decisively".


The SCAF has pledged to hand power to civilian rule by the end of June, after a president is elected, but many fear its retreat will be just an illusion.


The army, with its vast and opaque economic power, wants to keep its budget a secret by remaining exempt from parliamentary scrutiny, maintain control of military-related legislation and secure immunity from prosecution.


The election comes less than two weeks before a court is expected to issue a verdict in the trial of Mubarak, 84, tried on charges of complicity in the killing of about 900 protesters during the uprising against his 29-year rule. He also faced corruption charges, along with his two sons, Gamal and Alaa.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...432629314.html

[stumbler]

It looks like the uprising in Syria has now brought the US, and UK into a possible showdown with Russia.

A Russian ship suspected of carrying weapons to Syria has turned around near Scotland after being warned that delivering weapons to Syria would really upset EU members.

While in the meantime President Obama and Russian president Putin met face to face for the first time in three years and the tension was obvious with apparently neither of them trying to conceal their dislike for each other.

[richief]

This is what we should be doing, Russia are not frightening militarily any more there armed forces are a busted flush, so they may be able to turn the gas of across Europe but that then leaves a hole in their economy, so they do not bother me, their concerns are shown as they are the ones who turned around.

As for Putin and Obama disliking each other it matters not, not many like the KGB wannabe dictator.

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by richief

This is what we should be doing, Russia are not frightening militarily any more there armed forces are a busted flush, so they may be able to turn the gas of across Europe but that then leaves a hole in their economy, so they do not bother me, their concerns are shown as they are the ones who turned around.

As for Putin and Obama disliking each other it matters not, not many like the KGB wannabe dictator.

I agree with you on most all of this and have to wonder about the other major player and when China is not getting mentioned as also blocking any efforts for the UN to do anything.

[stumbler]

There is the strangest situation and protests coming out of Egypt right now its almost surreal. For one thing from the videos I'm seeing its looks like there are a couple hundred thousand people gathered in the revolutionary square but no one, not even the western press on the ground can say for sure what all those people are doing there.

Some of them are protesting what they consider a military take over of their democracy that's been evolving over the past few days. However, others are celebrating the election of their candidate for president. Except, there's actually two groups of those as two opposing candidates are both claiming they won the election.

And while there's no confirmation some of them may be there because they are celebrating the impending death of Mubarak.

But no matter what the reasons are check out the video's on the news. That's one shit load of people gathered there. And they all seem peaceful. Maybe even joyful.

[origen01]

Waiting for Egyptian election results. Any minute now...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...edName=topNews

[origen01]

Taking a long time. god damn...

[origen01]

holy shit, this commission chair is droning on and on about absolutely nothing...

[origen01]

FFS, this old man needs to GTFO...

[origen01]

New York Times



Morsi Is Winner of Egyptian Presidency

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by origen01

New York Times



Morsi Is Winner of Egyptian Presidency

And Morsi was sworn in today but I think its pretty obvious the military is still in charge.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...128551518.html

[origen01]

Originally Posted by stumbler

And Morsi was sworn in today but I think its pretty obvious the military is still in charge.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...128551518.html

I guess that's where you and I disagree. I'm not so sure having the military retain some extraordinary powers is a bad thing for democracy--given the tendencies of political Islamists to restrict personal freedoms and disenfranchise minorities.

[origen01]

great article. The Muslim Brotherhood is not extremely radical but some factions within in are really troubling.

Egypt, no longer the country we knew

New president Mohammed Morsi must deliver on his election promises, such as giving the people social justice and freedom, while keeping the Muslim Brotherhood happy and the army at bay.
By Avi Issacharoff | 04:32 01.07.12 | 0





The joy of the thousands of Mohammed Morsi's supporters, who packed Tahrir Square in Cairo last Sunday, peaked when the head of the central elections committee in Egypt, Farouk Sultan, announced the victory of their candidate, the representative of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Sultan's announcement bore an implicit declaration of the emergence of a new Egypt. This is a country with new governmental systems, in contrast to the situation under the old regime, where the public was fearful of its government.
For the first time in the history of the largest Arab state, the public, in free democratic elections, brought to power a president who is not a former army officer. (Mohamed Naguib, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar Sadat, Hosni Mubarak and Morsi's rival, Ahmed Shafiq, were all from the armed forces. )
In contrast, Morsi is a senior member of an Islamist movement which was outlawed in Egypt for many years. Unlike his predecessors, the new president was elected by the people, even if not by a large majority. He did not come to power in a military coup, as occurred with Naguib in 1952. In the new Egypt, as in other countries of the Middle East, political Islam has taken over the governmental system. But the young people in the square and, of course, the army will continue to play a central role in the country.
The new Egypt is a young republic which will quickly have to find a balance among the diverse political forces that are active within it. "Egypt has changed before our eyes," says Yitzhak Levanon, a former Israeli ambassador to Egypt. It is no longer the country we knew."
On Wednesday, three days after the announcement of Morsi's victory, the representatives of the Islamists and the military council were still far from agreement about the venue at which the new president would take the oath of office. Morsi eventually took a symbolic oath of office on Friday in Tahrir Square and then yesterday was sworn in as president before the Supreme Constitutional Court in Cairo ).
In a country where 50 million people have the right to vote, only 882,751 votes separated Shafiq, the candidate of the military council, and Morsi. Shafiq - the last prime minister under ousted president Hosni Mubarak - managed to stay close, despite an aggressive campaign against him waged by the Muslim Brotherhood. Shafiq himself put up a pathetic fight. At times it seemed as though his only wish was to get through the elections in one piece. The decision by the Supreme Constitutional Court to dissolve parliament also hurt Shafiq's chances, reinforcing the feeling held by many Egyptians that the military council was trying to foment a "soft revolution" by constitutional methods.
Each of the sides will try to hold on to its power bases. The army will keep a grip on the security establishment and the Constitutional Court, while the Muslim Brotherhood will seek to woo public opinion, which is against antidemocratic measures. Morsi will have to decide whether to take a confrontational approach, with the intention of reaching a conciliation with the council and establishing a regime that will integrate the different power centers, or to engage the military in a head-on collision, as he promised in his election campaign.
In the campaign, Morsi promised to annul the constitutional amendment announced by the Supreme Military Council, which aims to make the president of Egypt more of a figurehead - perhaps like the Queen of England - than an all-powerful ruler like Mubarak.
According to Prof. Yoram Meital, an expert on Egypt from Ben-Gurion University and the Chaim Herzog Center for Middle East Studies and Diplomacy, the army's move to change the president's powers recalls the actions of the Free Officers Movement in Egypt from 1952 to 1954. "The Muslim Brotherhood and the army officers led the revolution then," he notes. "At a certain stage, the heads of the army took legislative powers into their hands. The situation today is different, because now it is the army that is trying to seize control of a revolution led by civilian forces. But then, too, it was a hard struggle between the officers and the Muslim Brotherhood. In October 1954, radical elements in the Muslim Brotherhood movement initiated an effort to assassinate Nasser, which failed. In the wake of that attempt, the military regime jailed hundreds of members of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the great confrontation between the two sides began."
Another former Israeli ambassador to Egypt, Zvi Mazel, is certain which way the winds are blowing in Egypt. "The army is finished; it is not strong enough," he says. "The Muslim Brotherhood was victorious in the elections to parliament and to the presidency, and they will achieve control in parliament again."
Implement promises now
Less than a day after Morsi was declared the election winner, a new website was launched, the Morsi Meter (www.morsimeter.com, in Arabic and English ). The site lists the 64 promises Morsi made during the presidential campaign and wants surfers to examine his achievements versus his promises after his first hundred days as president. The promises are categorized under the rubrics of "Bread" (economics and food ), "Security," "Traffic," "Cleanliness" (such as a promise to fine drivers of cars that cause pollution ) and "Fuel" (including a promise to supply gas to every home in Egypt ).
Morsi's voters, particularly those who are not members of the Muslim Brotherhood, want him to implement the promises today, not tomorrow. Similar wishes were voiced this week on the Egyptian TV channel Nile. A group of supporters of the secular movement Kafiya (which backed Morsi, though mainly to avert a Shafiq victory ) demonstrated in Tahrir Square and held up signs demanding "Bread, social justice and freedom."
"As I see it, their message is that the elections are over and now they want to make it clear to Morsi why they voted for him. They want an improvement in their living standard, freedom - that is, not a theocracy - and, of course, social justice," Prof. Meital says.
The fundamental dilemma with which Morsi will have to cope is between being the president of all Egypt's citizens and fulfilling his commitment to the Muslim Brotherhood. "For every decision Morsi will want to make, every significant move he makes, he will need approval from both the army and the supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Badie," Levanon notes.
The Muslim Brotherhood has undergone quite a few transformations since its foundation in Egypt 84 years ago. Founder Hassan al-Banna viewed it as a movement with an Islamic orientation that would work to accelerate social and cultural reforms. The political step now being taken by the Muslim Brotherhood is consistent with al-Banna's approach in many ways. Sayyid Qutb was one of the movement's leaders in the period after al-Banna. He urged the Brotherhood to dissociate itself from any form of Western government.
However, according to Dr. Mira Tzoreff, from the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, "Anyone who tries to label the Muslim Brotherhood as 'fundamentalist' or claim that it will 'divorce itself from Israel and the West' is mistaken and misleading. The Muslim Brotherhood never sought to establish a theocracy, not in Egypt and not in the Arab arena. Their demand is for a higher dosage of Islamic values. Other than in the Qutb period, there is no demand in the movement's history for a total severance from the West."
Rules of the game
In the previous decade, the movement was far closer to the al-Banna model and took a positive view of taking part in government - especially after its impressive success in the 2005 parliamentary elections, when it received nearly a third of the votes. Internal power struggles led to the removal of the previous supreme guide in favor of Badie.
Badie, who is considered a "Qutbist," steered the movement away from the Mubarak regime and from taking part in the government. He also promoted other conservative leaders within the movement to senior positions, such as the movement's original candidate for president, Khairat al-Shatar, and Morsi. Despite his Ph.D. in engineering from the University of Southern California, his fluent English and the Western education his children received, Morsi has been known in recent years as one of the leading conservatives in the top ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
"I remember, to his detriment, mainly his part in drafting the platform of the Muslim Brotherhood, which was leaked in 2007," Tzoreff says. "He was responsible for two clauses. One stated that a woman or a Copt could not become president in a country with an Islamic majority. And the other spoke about the establishment of a council of ulema sages [scholars of Sharia law] which would ratify every decision of the president in both internal and external affairs. That led to an open dispute between Morsi and the young members of the Muslim Brotherhood. They demanded a shake up in the ranks of the leadership, but in vain."
There is no doubt that Morsi is very close to the movement's supreme guide, even though he was not Badie's main candidate for the presidency. Badie supported him only after al-Shatar was disqualified. The 61-year-old Morsi has justly earned his reputation for being a conservative - "even very conservative," Prof. Meital adds.
Tzoreff and Meital agree that a change has been discernible in the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood in the past few months. Morsi, al-Shatar and their colleagues no longer view themselves as leaders of just the movement. They have become politicians, part of the governmental system of Egypt. In recent weeks Morsi has also made several comments which, according to Tzoreff and Meital, show that he understands the new rules of the game.
For example, one of his spokesmen said that he intends to appoint a woman and a Copt as his deputies. That may have been intended as a counterweight to his notorious 2007 remark on the subject. Morsi also says he intends to honor Egypt's existing agreements, including the peace treaty with Israel, and emphasizes that Egypt will be a "civilian" (not religious ) state.
A senior political source in Jerusalem said that Israel does not expect changes in its security relations with Egypt at this time. Despite that statement, it is hard to ignore Morsi's election campaign. Just a month and a half ago, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate sat on the stage at a rally in which a few of his close associates shouted: "Morsi will liberate Gaza" and "Jerusalem will be the capital of the united Arab nations."

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by origen01

I guess that's where you and I disagree. I'm not so sure having the military retain some extraordinary powers is a bad thing for democracy--given the tendencies of political Islamists to restrict personal freedoms and disenfranchise minorities.

And that would be what I call a very valid difference of opinion because while I'm mostly considering;" Morsi also says he intends to honor Egypt's existing agreements, including the peace treaty with Israel, and emphasizes that Egypt will be a "civilian" (not religious ) state; there's no guarantee. So you could be right the Islamic fundamentalists in the Brotherhood might be a bigger threat to a true and free democracy than the military.

However, it sure seems to me there are, and always has been, more military dictatorships than religious dictatorships. And so far at least its been the military that has been dictating what will and will not be acceptable just like they have been for decades.

[Pussy Shark]

Their opinion of us and also mine of them. The one thing we agree on.

[origen01]

Originally Posted by Pussy Shark

Their opinion of us and also mine of them. The one thing we agree on.

that's real mature. get the fuck out

[Pussy Shark]

Originally Posted by origen01

that's real mature. GTFO

Go over there. See for yourself cherry.

[origen01]

Originally Posted by Pussy Shark

Go over there. See for yourself cherry.

....

[origen01]

Originally Posted by Pussy Shark

Go over there. See for yourself cherry.

hey. I thank for your service, though. You must have gone through some rough shit.

[Pussy Shark]

Originally Posted by origen01

Well, of course an occupying force will not be greeted by roses....

I'm fucking with you! I don't give a shit about it really. I have my opinion and no one's going to change it.

[Pussy Shark]

Originally Posted by origen01

hey. I thank for your service, though. You must have gone through some rough shit.

Hey!! Thank you man!!! I really appreciate it!! Thanks!

[origen01]

Originally Posted by Pussy Shark

Hey!! Thank you man!!! I really appreciate it!! Thanks!

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by Pussy Shark

Their opinion of us and also mine of them. The one thing we agree on.

By "us" of course you are speaking of bigots like yourself and those that agree with your prejudices I assume.

Because you damn sure can't count me among those ignorant and prejudiced enough to condemn and someone else's religion.

[Pussy Shark]

Originally Posted by stumbler

By "us" of course you are speaking of bigots like yourself and those that agree with your prejudices I assume.

Because you damn sure can't count me among those ignorant and prejudiced enough to condemn and someone else's religion.

whatever you say there

[shyguyy2]

No, They may be protesting and rising up but they keep voting with their religion.

[RedRats]

we did bot chose the Islamic candidate we are kinda focred to

the final stage was between him and one of the old courrpted system , and we had to chose

so here is what u can do

1- pick the Islamic one
2- pick the corrupted one
3- do not pick any

me , chose to follow the 3rd and trust me many ppl are not happy with Morsi either , but it is just how things turned out

[shyguyy2]

Originally Posted by RedRats

we did bot chose the Islamic candidate we are kinda focred to

the final stage was between him and one of the old courrpted system , and we had to chose

so here is what u can do

1- pick the Islamic one
2- pick the corrupted one
3- do not pick any

me , chose to follow the 3rd and trust me many ppl are not happy with Morsi either , but it is just how things turned out

I believe you. I spent 4 1/2 years in the middle east as a Marine I've talked to more than a few people who do vote using religion as a factor. I've also talked to people like you I like people that vote like you do. BTW I won't be voting for my country's candidates this year.

[stumbler]

This is another one of those instances that I will believe when I actually see it.

Fall of Syria's Assad 'only a matter of time'

The former head of the UN observer mission in Syria has said that Bashar al-Assad's fall is "only a matter of time", but that his exit may not end the conflict.


"Sooner or later, the regime will fall," Robert Mood, the Norwegian general whose mandate to lead a 300-strong misson ended last week amid a sharp spike in violence, said on Friday.


"The spiral of violence, the lack of proportion in the regime's reactions, its incapacity to protect the civilian population, mean that the regime's days are numbered, but will it fall in a week or in a year? That is a question I do not dare answer," he told the AFP news agency.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...921493143.html

[Distant Lover]

Like Saddam Hussein, Bashar al-Assad has support within his country. No dictator can rule by fear alone, especially during a civil war.

[PatronofPorn]

I found this to be a fascinating development.

Three Chinese warships crossed into the eastern Mediterranean today, joining 10 Russian warships and three US aircraft carriers, as well as dozens of Turkish military vessels.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...?newsfeed=true

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by PatronofPorn

I found this to be a fascinating development.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...?newsfeed=true

WOW thanks for finding that. That is news. And definitely raises the stakes.

[richief]

Eventually the government regime will fall, the question is at what cost, how many on both sides will lose their lives in this uprising against tyranny. This will be the biggest blood bath of the "Arab Spring". Then where next, the gulf states will be extremely worried as the population looks at the disparity in wealth and power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19031527

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by richief

Eventually the government regime will fall, the question is at what cost, how many on both sides will lose their lives in this uprising against tyranny. This will be the biggest blood bath of the "Arab Spring". Then where next, the gulf states will be extremely worried as the population looks at the disparity in wealth and power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19031527

The body count in Syria is already past 20,000 and growing faster every day.

But those numbers pale in comparison to what an all out war that might involve the US, Russia, and China.

However, I really have to wonder if the Arab Spring will ever reach the wealthiest of the Gulf States. And if it does what the US will do to suppress it. Because that's where there are too many US investments and petroleum interests.

Our 1% actually gets along with their 1% quite well and have at least since the early 1950's.

[richief]

The rebels do not want US boots on the ground, just a little support, maybe a few guns and bullets, you seem to have enough laying around at home.

[origen01]

Originally Posted by stumbler

An interesting question and one no one seems to have an answer to.

Here's another story form the Asian Times that amounts to babbling speculation but no solid facts. The did make one interesting point which is that nearly all Middle East news outlets are completely silent about this and the Saudi's control most of those outlets.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NH02Ak03.html

Frankly, I call bullshit. I don't believe the Mukhabarat has this kind of capability....UNLESS...the QUDS Force did it...and that's an act of war....

Hopefully Bandar is not dead. I like that guy...I also don't want him to become the Archduke Ferdinand of a major regional war...

On a side note, interesting comments in Haaretz quoting a former Israeli Defense official. "Iran should be afraid in the next 12 weeks". Netenyahu's comments to Mitt Romney and Leon Panetta are telling. Despite the fact that the US has inflicted the most severe economic sanctions against a foreign nation since the start of the Cuban embargo, Israeli is still not convinced that such efforts are effective. I think Netenyahu has made up his mind to strike.

[richief]

So what is the planned route, are they going through Jordan and Iraq with or without permission, or will they take the long way around, down the Red Sea and through the Straits of Hormuz. Which ever route they take they will be under hostile guns and missiles all of the way, then they have to breach the Iranian AA picket.

[smcaaphd]

Originally Posted by stumbler

The body count in Syria is already past 20,000 and growing faster every day.

But those numbers pale in comparison to what an all out war that might involve the US, Russia, and China.

However, I really have to wonder if the Arab Spring will ever reach the wealthiest of the Gulf States. And if it does what the US will do to suppress it. Because that's where there are too many US investments and petroleum interests.

Our 1% actually gets along with their 1% quite well and have at least since the early 1950's.

Originally Posted by richief

The rebels do not want US boots on the ground, just a little support, maybe a few guns and bullets, you seem to have enough laying around at home.

I thought, according to what I could glean from the 10 o'clock BBC news last night, that rebel forces are being trained and having hardware supplied by the US (and possibly the UK)?

I could be wrong - I think I was only half watching it, being 3/4 asleep at that time!!

[origen01]

Originally Posted by richief

So what is the planned route, are they going through Jordan and Iraq with or without permission, or will they take the long way around, down the Red Sea and through the Straits of Hormuz. Which ever route they take they will be under hostile guns and missiles all of the way, then they have to breach the Iranian AA picket.

Nobody has any clue and it would be a hairy mission. They would probably use Saudi airspace and fly unchallenged because the Saudis don't want another war with Israel nor do they bleed Kool-aid for the Ayatollah...

That's the way it went down for Operation Opera.

[richief]

Originally Posted by origen01

Nobody has any clue and it would be a hairy mission. They would probably use Saudi airspace and fly unchallenged because the Saudis don't want another war with Israel nor do they bleed Kool-aid for the Ayatollah...

That's the way it went down for Operation Opera.

Opera was an attack on Iraq who were a direct threat to Saudi, this incursion into Iran will pull down more condemnation from around the world and not just the islamic countries. They may be successful in the mission but there are five sites, are they going to visit all of them or just the easiest to reach. Don't forget that Iran will stand its ships out to sea as an AA picket, plus the normal border picket and then the extra AA sites surrounding the nuclear facilities.

Hairy does not describe it well enough, unless of course they have borrowed some B2 bombers. I do not see a safe outcome for Israel and any pilot downed and caught is not going home but rather heading for the torture rooms that Iran is proud of.

[origen01]

Originally Posted by richief

Opera was an attack on Iraq who were a direct threat to Saudi, this incursion into Iran will pull down more condemnation from around the world and not just the islamic countries. They may be successful in the mission but there are five sites, are they going to visit all of them or just the easiest to reach. Don't forget that Iran will stand its ships out to sea as an AA picket, plus the normal border picket and then the extra AA sites surrounding the nuclear facilities.

Hairy does not describe it well enough, unless of course they have borrowed some B2 bombers. I do not see a safe outcome for Israel and any pilot downed and caught is not going home but rather heading for the torture rooms that Iran is proud of.

Well, you must remember that the Iraq was not an existential threat to Saudi at the time of Operation Oprea. In fact, Iraq was an ally in a regional war against Iran.

Iran is still a major regional foe and none of the Arabian monarchies will stand in the way of a strike--especially if it turns out that Prince Bandar is dead and was killed by the Iranians.

And, frankly, capability is not a concern for me.

The IDF can do ANYTHING....

[Distant Lover]

Originally Posted by origen01

And, frankly, capability is not a concern for me.

The IDF can do ANYTHING....

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by origen01

Frankly, I call bullshit. I don't believe the Mukhabarat has this kind of capability....UNLESS...the QUDS Force did it...and that's an act of war....

Hopefully Bandar is not dead. I like that guy...I also don't want him to become the Archduke Ferdinand of a major regional war...

On a side note, interesting comments in Haaretz quoting a former Israeli Defense official. "Iran should be afraid in the next 12 weeks". Netenyahu's comments to Mitt Romney and Leon Panetta are telling. Despite the fact that the US has inflicted the most severe economic sanctions against a foreign nation since the start of the Cuban embargo, Israeli is still not convinced that such efforts are effective. I think Netenyahu has made up his mind to strike.

I disagree and would point back to the slaughter in Syria. Why doesn't the US and/or Israel do something about that? Because Syria, Iran, China, and Russia are all allies. And right now there are more Chinese and Russian military ships in the Persian Gulf than the US does.

Besides Israel cannot even exist without US aid let take on China and Russia.

[origen01]

Originally Posted by stumbler

I disagree and would point back to the slaughter in Syria. Why doesn't the US and/or Israel do something about that? Because Syria, Iran, China, and Russia are all allies. And right now there are more Chinese and Russian military ships in the Persian Gulf than the US does.

Besides Israel cannot even exist without US aid let take on China and Russia.

Do you think the Russians or Chinese would attack Israel militarily if they attacked Iran? I don't think so. Russia, China, and Iran aren't in a military alliance like NATO...

[richief]

Originally Posted by origen01

Well, you must remember that the Iraq was not an existential threat to Saudi at the time of Operation Oprea. In fact, Iraq was an ally in a regional war against Iran.

Iran is still a major regional foe and none of the Arabian monarchies will stand in the way of a strike--especially if it turns out that Prince Bandar is dead and was killed by the Iranians.

And, frankly, capability is not a concern for me.

The IDF can do ANYTHING....

No they can't, and it doesn't matter how much you and DL wish it they are not the best nor are they the strongest army in the world, most analysts put them around 10th. They are good at defending their borders and have had success with the odd surgical strike but that is the limit of the capabilities.

[origen01]

Originally Posted by richief

No they can't, and it doesn't matter how much you and DL wish it they are not the best nor are they the strongest army in the world, most analysts put them around 10th. They are good at defending their borders and have had success with the odd surgical strike but that is the limit of the capabilities.

When was the last time the IDF or Mossad incurred a major mission failure?

Israel is not perfect but they are military acrobats. The shit they've been able to do...

[Distant Lover]

Israel lacks desirable options in dealing with Iran. If Israel does nothing Israel may be annihilated. If Israel attacks Iran Israel may be annihilated.

Americans are in no position to pass judgement on Israel. We faced little danger of losing the Second World War. Germany and Japan lacked the manpower to occupy us even if we had to sign a conditional surrender to them.

During the Cold War millions of Americans were afraid that we would somehow "go Communist." That was never a possibility.

Israel has always been one mistake away from annihilation by enemies who were clear about their intentions.

[origen01]

Originally Posted by Distant Lover

Israel lacks desirable options in dealing with Iran. If Israel does nothing Israel may be annihilated. If Israel attacks Iran Israel may be annihilated.

Americans are in no position to pass judgement on Israel. We faced little danger of losing the Second World War. Germany and Japan lacked the manpower to occupy us even if we had to sign a conditional surrender to them.

During the Cold War millions of Americans were afraid that we would somehow "go Communist." That was never a possibility.

Israel has always been one mistake away from annihilation by enemies who were clear about their intentions.

Agreed. I would just beg to differ that the US faced a very real possibility of losing the war. This world would be a giant mess if the Nazis discovered the atomic bomb first...

[Distant Lover]

Originally Posted by origen01

Agreed. I would just beg to differ that the US faced a very real possibility of losing the war. This world would be a giant mess if the Nazis discovered the atomic bomb first...

That is a good point. However, after the war it was discovered that they were not close to an atom bomb.

If Hitler had waited five or six wars before starting the war he could have won. The Germans would have had a ballistic missile, the jet, and the atomic bomb.