Is political reform sweeping through the middle east

[stumbler]

For anyone interested this is a pretty good updated and detailed story from the Kalispell Montana TV station.

http://www.kaj18.com/news/egyptian-p...ead-31-killed/

[richief]

Ooops here is a snippet that should worry people.

Egyptian opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei was placed under house arrest, a high level security source said.

Watch Libya.

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by richief

Ooops here is a snippet that should worry people.



Watch Libya.

Thank you. Those are two very good tips I'd never even heard of and why Libya didn't come to my mind I'm not sure. But yes, I bet Mu'ammar Al-Qadhafi is shitting his pants right about now.

[richief]

The fact that he has been making overtures to the EU especially Britain and the US for the last few years makes his position a little less stable. If they do begin to protest, how far can he go with a crackdown and still expect us to do business with him?

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by richief

The fact that he has been making overtures to the EU especially Britain and the US for the last few years makes his position a little less stable. If they do begin to protest, how far can he go with a crackdown and still expect us to do business with him?

He can't. Especially after President Obama has clearly backed the reforms in Egypt. If Al-Qadhafi so much as blinked they would love to divert the attention from Egypt to Libya.

[richief]

A country that as never tasted the freedom of democracy, it has always been a monarchy or the colonels version of government, quite ripe for the religious fundamentalists to go to work in. Maybe he should pre-empt the issue by offering free elections in 18 months give him time to set up a party which will be acceptable to all and still keep himself head of government.

[empire06]

i hear it could but what you might get is the revolutionaries.

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by richief

A country that as never tasted the freedom of democracy, it has always been a monarchy or the colonels version of government, quite ripe for the religious fundamentalists to go to work in. Maybe he should pre-empt the issue by offering free elections in 18 months give him time to set up a party which will be acceptable to all and still keep himself head of government.

That actually sounds like a very reasonable idea. And reasonable would be a good thing in the birth place of the Muslim Brotherhood.

You know another country I've been wondering about is Saudi Arabia. They've actually always seemed more repressive than Egypt.

[AZRIEL]

-jewerine-.jpg

[stumbler]

CNN is reporting there's been a prison break with an estimated 1,000 escaped prisoners near Cairo.

Police stations have also been abandoned and their weapons looted according to reports.

The "new vice president" is the former head of security accused of torturing thousands of Egyptians.

[richief]

Originally Posted by stumbler

That actually sounds like a very reasonable idea. And reasonable would be a good thing in the birth place of the Muslim Brotherhood.

You know another country I've been wondering about is Saudi Arabia. They've actually always seemed more repressive than Egypt.

That is the nastiest country I ever had the misfortune to visit, if it wasn't so repressive then it would be ripe for riots, such a pity the US has so much invested in keeping the ruling royals happy. I can't see a theocracy allowing US bases nor can I see them (the ruling class and the US) installing a true democracy there.

[analsexman]

Originally Posted by stumbler

While most of the attention has been on Cairo I just saw a report that said there were 31 people killed in Alexandria.

By the way is anyone following this stuff on Facebook or Twitter? I'm betting that's where the real news is right now.

I am stumbler Wikileaks Updates on facebook uses Political Fail blog to keep us updated about this stuff.

It's really horrible what is happening.

[tim929]

Originally Posted by tenguy

More than a little motivation comes from being dirt poor and the leaders rich. When the people see other countries actually helping their citizens, instead of oppressing them, I think they begin to get itchy.

To me the big problem is going to be the religious fundamentalists, how will they capitalize on the situation?

Absolutly correct.Not all political "reform" is good and benneficial to the population. A lot of despots and madmen have been elevated to the position of El Presidente de Megadouchebag on the coat tails of revolutions that people hoped would bring reform and justice.

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by richief

That is the nastiest country I ever had the misfortune to visit, if it wasn't so repressive then it would be ripe for riots, such a pity the US has so much invested in keeping the ruling royals happy. I can't see a theocracy allowing US bases nor can I see them (the ruling class and the US) installing a true democracy there.

One word: Oil. And Egypt is not one of the big oil producers but the Suez Canel is.

And maybe its just me but I have such a different image of Egypt than you portray and I doubt that's an accident. Egypt has been central to US strategy in the Middle East since the creation of Israel.

Originally Posted by analsexman

I am stumbler Wikileaks Updates on facebook uses Political Fail blog to keep us updated about this stuff.

It's really horrible what is happening.

Sorry I missed this because I'm not sure I can estimate how important the internet is in all this, and that's about the only place we're going to get the truth at least in real time as its happening.

It was actually the internet that has sparked this uprising, rallied support and keeps it going. And dispite their best efforts I'm not sure any country can shut it completely off. At least I hope not.

[analsexman]

Originally Posted by stumbler

One word: Oil. And Egypt is not one of the big oil producers but the Suez Canel is.

And maybe its just me but I have such a different image of Egypt than you portray and I doubt that's an accident. Egypt has been central to US strategy in the Middle East since the creation of Israel.



Sorry I missed this because I'm not sure I can estimate how important the internet is in all this, and that's about the only place we're going to get the truth at least in real time as its happening.

It was actually the internet that has sparked this uprising, rallied support and keeps it going. And dispite their best efforts I'm not sure any country can shut it completely off. At least I hope not.

Funny you should mention that this thread here:http://forum.xnxx.com/showthread.php...81#post3755481

shows they still fight.

I really like political fail blog they give the truth about what is going on. I follow them on facebook.

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by analsexman

Funny you should mention that this thread here:http://forum.xnxx.com/showthread.php...81#post3755481

shows they still fight.

I really like political fail blog they give the truth about what is going on. I follow them on facebook.

I don't mess with Facebook or Twitter but I sometimes like to follow the live tweets on issues. A lot of times you're getting information from people who are actually on the ground and tweeting what they see.

The other problem is I can see why the governments in these countries would want to shut the internet down. That's where this uprising got organized and took off, and you can bet governments don't want eyewitnesses on the ground reporting what they see in real time.

But what amazes me is I don't think the internet can be shut down.

PS Good thing they've got the internet. I just read the Egyptian government shut down Al Jazeera.

[stumbler]

Here's an Al Jazeera live feed but I'm not sure much is gong on.

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

[analsexman]

Originally Posted by stumbler

But what amazes me is I don't think the internet can be shut down.

Not here in the US but the US wants a killswitch, I just got a thing to sign a petition to urge my senator people's to not go for it.

Even when they were cut off they still managed to find and update Anonymous on the situation and then they report it to others who are on the site and fans on facebook.

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by analsexman

Not here in the US but the US wants a killswitch, I just got a thing to sign a petition to urge my senator people's to not go for it.

Even when they were cut off they still managed to find and update Anonymous on the situation and then they report it to others who are on the site and fans on facebook.

One of the problems I have though is I don't trust Facebook as far as I could throw it. Its all the information and advertising angles they incorporate and even if they aren't monitoring the traffic I bet it would not be a very hard task.

But the idea of anonymous hookups really does fascinate me if we could figure how to do that everywhere I think it would change the world.

I wonder if countries like North Korea can actually block access to the internet?

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by richief

Ooops here is a snippet that should worry people.



Watch Libya.

Leading Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei has joined thousands of protesters in Cairo defying a curfew to demand President Mubarak stand down.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12320200

Ok ElBaradei had joined the opposition but which side is he on? What do you know about him?

[analsexman]

Originally Posted by stumbler

One of the problems I have though is I don't trust Facebook as far as I could throw it. Its all the information and advertising angles they incorporate and even if they aren't monitoring the traffic I bet it would not be a very hard task.

But the idea of anonymous hookups really does fascinate me if we could figure how to do that everywhere I think it would change the world.

I wonder if countries like North Korea can actually block access to the internet?

That is why you;

1. Get a adblocker
2. Make it so NO information get's out that you don't want out
3. Choose your friends very carefully.

I have an article somewhere around here *digs around* about how you can LOCK down facebook. Let me find it.

Ah here it is.

January 2011: The Definitive Facebook Lockdown Guide | ZDNet

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by analsexman

That is why you;

1. Get a adblocker
2. Make it so NO information get's out that you don't want out
3. Choose your friends very carefully.

I have an article somewhere around here *digs around* about how you can LOCK down facebook. Let me find it.

Ah here it is.

January 2011: The Definitive Facebook Lockdown Guide | ZDNet

I might check it out. And I need all the computer help I can get.

[stumbler]

Here's one story but on TV I'm hearing these "million man" marches are planned for more than one city.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_816085.html

But there are just a lot of things that jump out at me about this and one of them is what I believe is a westernized adaptation from all the "million man" marches we've had in the US. And the next thing is that the protests are not only continuing, from what I can see they are becoming much more organized and hopefully peaceful. That I would think not only puts a ton of international pressure on Mubarak to step down, but the longer the protests continue and the more successes they have would seem to me to increase the odds of the uprisings spreading.

Also (someone correct me if this statistic is wrong) but I think I heard the medium age in Egypt is 24. Can that be possible? Because to my eternal regret I lost an original research paper written by a professor in the UK (I think) that concluded you can't really have a riot unless you have an abundance of 18 to 24 year-old males. If I've got the medium age right that would be about half of Egypt.

And the other thing that has struck me repeatedly in interview after interview with the people in the streets is Mubarak's removal is not what they really want.

What the protesters in Egypt really want is what most of us have right now. They want jobs, they want a middle-class existence complete with TVs, computers, and internet. They want to join the modern world. And they are blaming Mubarak for holding them back.

If they achieve that goal, and join the modern world, I think the uprisings will not only spread, Islamic radical fundamentalism will become all but extinct.

It was one thing when they could not see how the rest of the world lives. But thanks to the internet now they can, and it pisses them off and they're not going to take it anymore. Especially the young who are pretty sure they've got better things to do than suffer and die in this life because they've seen it on the internet.

[stumbler]

I guess the Middle east aren't the only ones worried about these pro democracy demonstrations spreading. According to this story China has also blocked internet access concerning the protests in Egypt.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/...sts-on-the-web

[shootersa]

(..........Shooter has a horrifying thought;
What if the internet access that caused all this was oversexed testosterone driven 24 year old Egyptian males looking at www.xnxx.com........................)

I mean, that would make analsexman a candidate to replace Mubarak!
And............OH MY GOD! Stumbler would be defense minister!............

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by shootersa

(..........Shooter has a horrifying thought;
What if the internet access that caused all this was oversexed testosterone driven 24 year old Egyptian males looking at www.xnxx.com........................)

I mean, that would make analsexman a candidate to replace Mubarak!
And............OH MY GOD! Stumbler would be defense minister!............

I'd do it. But not just for Egyptian men. There'd have to be equal fucking rights for Egyptian women.

[analsexman]

Originally Posted by stumbler

I might check it out. And I need all the computer help I can get.

I can most assuredly help you with that and others I like.

[ace's n 8's]

Jordan's king fires government, names new PM

AMMAN - King Abdullah II of Jordan on Tuesday sacked the government of Samir Rifai and named Maruf Bakhit as prime minister with orders to carry out "true political reforms," the palace said, after weeks of opposition protests demanding change.

"King Abdullah II designated Maruf Bakhit to form a new government to replace the government of Samir Rifai," a palace statement said.

"Bakhit's mission is to take practical, quick and tangible steps to launch true political reforms, enhance Jordan's democratic drive and ensure safe and decent living for all Jordanians."

Jordan's powerful Islamist opposition said on Monday that it had started a dialogue with the state, saying that unlike the situation in Egypt, it did not seek regime change.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...108303/1/.html

[Distant Lover]

Originally Posted by stumbler

And the other thing that has struck me repeatedly in interview after interview with the people in the streets is Mubarak's removal is not what they really want.

What the protesters in Egypt really want is what most of us have right now. They want jobs, they want a middle-class existence complete with TVs, computers, and internet. They want to join the modern world. And they are blaming Mubarak for holding them back.

If they achieve that goal, and join the modern world, I think the uprisings will not only spread, Islamic radical fundamentalism will become all but extinct.

It was one thing when they could not see how the rest of the world lives. But thanks to the internet now they can, and it pisses them off and they're not going to take it anymore. Especially the young who are pretty sure they've got better things to do than suffer and die in this life because they've seen it on the internet.

The problem is that the government cannot decree a higher standard of living. The per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Egypt is much lower than in the United States. There is also less economic inequality.

On the one hand, a left wing government in Egypt would not have much wealth to spread around. On the other hand, in the United States right wing ideologues claim that "lower taxes, less government," is the way to create prosperity. Nevertheless, nearly all countries with lower taxes and less government than we have in the United States also have a lower standard of living.

Religious fanaticism, like political fanaticism, is a cry of pain from those who cannot have what they want in life. In poor countries the internet and television create a desire for what cannot be enjoyed.

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by ace's n 8's

Jordan's king fires government, names new PM

AMMAN - King Abdullah II of Jordan on Tuesday sacked the government of Samir Rifai and named Maruf Bakhit as prime minister with orders to carry out "true political reforms," the palace said, after weeks of opposition protests demanding change.

"King Abdullah II designated Maruf Bakhit to form a new government to replace the government of Samir Rifai," a palace statement said.

"Bakhit's mission is to take practical, quick and tangible steps to launch true political reforms, enhance Jordan's democratic drive and ensure safe and decent living for all Jordanians."

Jordan's powerful Islamist opposition said on Monday that it had started a dialogue with the state, saying that unlike the situation in Egypt, it did not seek regime change.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...108303/1/.html

WOW I saw this this morning and was shocked because I hadn't heard of anything going on in Jordan. But I've always liked King Abdullah II even though any country with a "King" seems weird to me.

But as far as Kings go I've really been impressed with his intelligence, moderation and integrity. And what I'm reading here reinforces that.

[stumbler]

Have any of you seen the pictures of the "Million Man March" in Egypt. They are claiming 2 million people actually showed up and by some of the pictures I've seen I believe them.

Also some reports claim there are actually two demonstrations including an opposition demonstration of people who want government reforms but fear the collapse of the government and think Mubarak should be given a chance to reform the government.

All the different factions, however, including the Egyptian government appear to be honoring pledges to keep the demonstrations peaceful.

And in another development there are reports that the looters who were seen in the past days were actually Mubarak loyalists trying to escalate the demonstrations to something that would justify a massive government crack down on the demonstrations. That is of course unconfirmed and should not be taken at face value.

[Distant Lover]

This is interesting. I imagine the dictatorship in North Korea is getting even more nervous.

--------

Time By EMILY RAUHALA Emily Rauhala – Mon Jan 31, 6:10 pm ET

Everybody's talking about a revolution. Except, that is, in China.
As the unrest in Egypt stretches on, China has blocked the news from micro-blogs and is scrubbing related comments from the web. Has all this talk of freedom got them on edge?

Yes, but that's hardly news. The Communist Party keeps a close eye on the Internet and blocks any content that could constitute a threat. Typically, that means no references to the 'three Ts' (Tibet, Taiwan, Tienanmen or criticism of one-party rule. Censors also crack down ahead of a special events, such as the 2008 Beijing Olympics, or after a political crisis, like the 2009 riots in Xinjiang.

What's more interesting is what they have said about the protests. On January 30, Global Times, a state-run newspaper, published an editorial warning, essentially, that democracy would fail in Tunisia and Egypt. An excerpt: "In general, democracy has a strong appeal because of the successful models in the West. But whether the system is applicable in other countries is in question, as more and more unsuccessful examples arise.

"In the West, democracy is not only a political system, but a way of life. Yet some emerging democracies in Asia and Africa are taking hit after hit from street-level clamor.

"Democracy is still far away for Tunisia and Egypt. The success of a democracy takes concrete foundations in economy, education and social issues."

In other words, revolution won't bring democracy. So don't even try.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/2011013...fullworldyahoo

[Krieg]

Originally Posted by Distant Lover

In other words, revolution won't bring democracy. So don't even try.

I always find it ironic when someone from the US makes that statement

[Distant Lover]

Originally Posted by Distant Lover

In other words, revolution won't bring democracy. So don't even try.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/2011013...fullworldyahoo

Originally Posted by Krieg

I always find it ironic when someone from the US makes that statement

I quoted a news story verbatim. The two sentences I high lighted do not represent the opinion of the person who wrote the news story. They do not represent my opinion. They represent the message the Chinese Communist dictatorship wants its citizens to hear.

I think democracy will work excellently on the Chinese mainland, just as it works in Taiwan. Unfortunately, it will probably be awhile before the government adopts democratic reforms.

If you look at history you can see that democracy has usually resulted from peaceful, evolutionary reform, rather than violent revolutions. The American Revolution may seem to be an exception, but the American colonists were able to vote for their local leaders before 1776.

[stumbler]

Mubarak is expected to make a speech in a few minutes (I've already been waiting for more than half an hour) in which he is expected to say he will not run for re-election during the next presidential election in September.

Analysts are saying that will not satisfy the protesters. And that Mubarak will have to step down. In the meantime the demonstrations continue peacefully as far as I can determine.

[Lioness]

I have a friend whose daughter lives in Egypt...not sure if she's heard from her daughter in the last few days.

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by Lioness

I have a friend whose daughter lives in Egypt...not sure if she's heard from her daughter in the last few days.

I'll bet she's worried. First, they pretty much told all westerners to get out of there and then they found out there was hardly anyway to leave the country.

PS I'm not sure what's going to happen now but if the reports are truthful Mubarak's speech announcing he would not run for re-election but was not stepping down immediately did not go over well. Some reports said that drew the angriest reaction from the crowds since the demonstrations began.

[Distant Lover]

So far the demonstrators do not seem to have a leader the way the Ayatollah Khomeini lead the opposition to the Shah. I consider that a hopeful sign. A disunited opposition will be less prone to totalitarian temptations.

[Lioness]

Originally Posted by stumbler

I'll bet she's worried. First, they pretty much told all westerners to get out of there and then they found out there was hardly anyway to leave the country.

PS I'm not sure what's going to happen now but if the reports are truthful Mubarak's speech announcing he would not run for re-election but was not stepping down immediately did not go over well. Some reports said that drew the angriest reaction from the crowds since the demonstrations began.

Yes, she's worried! I just checked for any updates and yesterday she said her daughter and son-in-law who live in Cairo are staying put and still trying to go to work at a school. There have been looters around their apartment and the police have told the men to stay inside so they'll know who the looters are. They've been given lots of food by their friends who left and the trains aren't running. I think they need to leave, too!!

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by Lioness

Yes, she's worried! I just checked for any updates and yesterday she said her daughter and son-in-law who live in Cairo are staying put and still trying to go to work at a school. There have been looters around their apartment and the police have told the men to stay inside so they'll know who the looters are. They've been given lots of food by their friends who left and the trains aren't running. I think they need to leave, too!!

Its kind of amazing to me but I've also heard stories of people helping each other including foreigners. But I don't think anyone is in control of this situation and who knows where it could go.

If it gets to the point where people are getting hungry it could turn pretty ugly I fear.

[stumbler]

It looks like things could be taking a turn for the worse in Egypt. I'm seeing and hearing reports of protesters and pro-Mubarak factions in violent clashes.

And you know you're seeing a different country when you're seeing people attacking from horses and camels.

At one point, a small contingent of pro-Mubarak forces on horseback and camels rushed into the anti-Mubarak crowds, swinging whips and sticks to beat people. Protesters retaliated, dragging some from their mounts, throwing them to the ground and beating their faces bloody.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_817328.html

[stumbler]

It looks like the pro-democracy demonstrations are having impacts that are literally changing the face of government in the MIddle East

Yemen president not to extend term
Pre-empting mass anti-government protest, Ali Saleh vows not to seek extension and not to pass on the reins to his son.

Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Yemeni president, has backed down on a plan to rule his impoverished Arab country for life after mass protests demanding his ouster.
In an announcement on Wednesday, Saleh said he plans for elections in April had been scrapped along with constitutional amendments that would have seen him become president for life.

"I will not extend my mandate and I am against hereditary rule," he said.

The move would bring an end to a three-decade rule when his current term expires in 2013.
Eyeing protests that brought down Tunisia's leader and threaten to topple Egypt's president, Saleh vowed not to pass on the reins of power to his son.
"No extension, no inheritance, no resetting the clock," Saleh said during an emergency session of parliament and the consultative council ahead of a "day of rage" organised by civil society groups and opposition leaders for Thursday in all provinces.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/af...541277951.html

PS Egyptian military is reported to be shooting tear gas in what may be an attempt to break up the demonstrations and stop the fighting.

[Krieg]

Watching live coverage of Egypt, it's going to get very bloody when the sun goes down in an hour two.

[stumbler]

I'm afraid you're right. Al Jazeera's front page is beginning to look pretty ugly.

http://english.aljazeera.net/

By the way they have a live feed link running and you can access it in the upper right corner of the front page.

[richief]

The BBC stated that the pro government faction are organised and paid by the incumbent party.

What do you think if the pro demoracy protesters just walk away and leave it till September?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12345656

[Kimiko]

Originally Posted by richief

The BBC stated that the pro government faction are organised and paid by the incumbent party.

What do you think if the pro demoracy protesters just walk away and leave it till September?

I think they'll end up being double-crossed. Mubarak will basically appoint a like-minded successor. They're right not to trust him.

[richief]

Originally Posted by Kimiko

I think they'll end up being double-crossed. Mubarak will basically appoint a like-minded successor. They're right not to trust him.

Could be that is his plan. Let the violence begin, or time for Obama to start earning his peace prize and exert the pressure to force an early change.

[Kimiko]

Originally Posted by richief

Could be that is his plan. Let the violence begin, or time for Obama to start earning his peace prize and exert the pressure to force an early change.

I agree. I think it's time for Obama to intervene, but he doesn't have to do it in an obvious way. A little subtle pressure on the Egyption army and Mubarak is toast.

[stumbler]

Originally Posted by richief

The BBC stated that the pro government faction are organised and paid by the incumbent party.

What do you think if the pro demoracy protesters just walk away and leave it till September?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12345656

I believe that. I've also heard the same thing about the people who tried to loot the Museums. That they were actually pro-Mubarak and trying to make it look like the protesters were looting. Except I don't think anything was actually stolen. Just damaged. That's not what real looters do.

Originally Posted by Kimiko

I think they'll end up being double-crossed. Mubarak will basically appoint a like-minded successor. They're right not to trust him.

I agree and could see why the demonstrators would also not want to lose the momentum they've generated so far.

They are in control not the government and that could change very quickly if the world was not watching.

Originally Posted by richief

Could be that is his plan. Let the violence begin, or time for Obama to start earning his peace prize and exert the pressure to force an early change.

I think this is a razor's edge damned if you do and damned if you don't situation for President Obama and he has to be extremely careful about what he does and does not do.

Originally Posted by Kimiko

I agree. I think it's time for Obama to intervene, but he doesn't have to do it in an obvious way. A little subtle pressure on the Egyption army and Mubarak is toast.

That would be nice if it were possible. But short of that I don't think president Obama and the US can be seen as picking Egypt's next leader.

[richief]

Well, the way the US as propped up the regime there for a few years now, maybe a little nudge will do the trick.