It will be interesting to see what kind of Christmas shopping season we have this year, which can be an indicator of how the middle class is really doing and their overall confidence in how they'll be doing in the coming year. I plan on buying a new TV, but only because I anticipate that tariffs are going to push up prices next year.

Tariffs on soybeans have caused the Chinese to essentially quit buying American soybeans (dropped 94%) turning to Brazil and

wait for it ....

RUSSIA! Chinese purchase of Russian soybeans has TRIPLED in the last year. Meanwhile, millions of bushels of American soybeans are rotting in piles because silos are full. A Trump policy that's hurting Americans and benefitting Russia. Who could have predicted that?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...amount-of-russian-soy-as-it-shuns-u-s-growers

 

Nobody has gotten back to me on this.

Trump really did say that he could pay off the national debt in eight years. If, when he leaves office in 2025 the national debt is zero, and he has not defaulted on it, I will give him credit.

-------

The Washington Post

In a revealing interview, Trump predicts a ‘massive recession’ but intends to eliminate the national debt in 8 years

By Bob Woodward and
Robert Costa
April 2, 2016

In his first 100 days, Trump said, he would cut taxes, “renegotiate trade deals and renegotiate military deals,” including altering the U.S. role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

He insisted that he would be able to get rid of the nation’s more than $19 trillion national debt “over a period of eight years.”

 

Well, lets see; the labor force is shrinking because people are not looking for work?
In January, 2008 the total US labor force was 154,063,000. That is the total civilian population over 16 in the United States. In October, 2018 the total civilian labor force totaled 162,637,000. So no, the labor force is not shrinking, to the contrary, it continues to grow.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000

In addition, people are not stopping their work search, to the contrary; more people than ever are seeking, and finding work; that's why the unemployment rate is so low (3.7%, lower than it has been for decades) and why the labor participation rate is stable at around 63%, where it has hovered since 2012. A growing labor force demands more jobs if labor force participation is to remain stable, and a low unemployment rate indicates that those seeking work (actually those collecting unemployment benefits and seeking work) are finding jobs.
https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

Now, one interesting trend is that by age group, fewer 16-54 year olds were seeking work in 2015 than they did in 2000, while older Americans, aged 55 and older increased their labor force participation between 2000 and 2015. Imagine that.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/a...cipation-what-has-happened-since-the-peak.htm

Now, WBD, what areas of the United States are still suffering from recessions or closures? Cause Shooter looked, and from an unemployment standpoint, Alaska had the highest unemployment at 6.7%, but that was still down from prior years.

 

ROFLMMFAO.

 

Well, according to the fed total card debt in the US in september was $1.41 trillion, or about $8,000 per consumer. It was $1.22 trillion, so not a huge increase after all.

See, the problem is you assume Americans are too stupid to handle their business.

The economy is doing fine. We will see another recession, cause what goes up does come down, but thats what happens no matter who has the reins.

 

I agree that we are probably due for a recession, and that recessions happen no matter who is in charge. What will matter is how deep the recession will be and how this administration will respond to it. I am not optimistic.

 

Doesn't the rise in the yearly deficit bother you? Cutting taxes has beneficial short term effects, and detrimental long term effects. It should only be done when the per capita gross domestic product is shrinking.

Republicans used to claim to be "fiscally responsible." Now when the economy is shrinking Republicans say "We need to cut taxes to grow the economy." When the economy recovers they say, "Now we can afford to cut taxes."

This "booming economy" Republicans are raving about is the continuation of economic growth that began under Obama, plus the added stimulus of the sugar high of tax cuts.

I have documented on a number of occasions that there is little support for cuts in domestic spending, and long lasting support for increases in tax increases on the rich and the corporations.

Republicans win elections by exploiting social resentments of whites who are not rich. I share some of these resentsments. That is a topic for another comment. My point is that once elected Republican politicians persue economic policies for which there is little or no popular support.

 

"Soy beans rotting?
Not in the US. Record sales this year."

The sales may have been record before the tariffs, but they aren't now.

"Soy beans rotting?
Not in the US. Record sales this year."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.html

"But this year, the Chinese have all but stopped buying. The largest market for one of America’s largest exports has shut its doors. The Chinese government imposed a tariff on American soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods. The latest federal data, through mid-October, shows American soybean sales to China have declined by 94 percent from last year’s harvest.

Kevin Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which has long sold soybeans to China. With that market now largely shut off, Mr. Karel said his firm has started to stockpile soybeans.

Mr. Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which operates six grain elevators in eastern North Dakota, has started to pile one million bushels of soybeans on a clear patch of ground behind some of his grain silos. The big mound of yellowish-white beans, already one of the taller hills in this flat part of the world, will then be covered with tarps.

The hope is that prices will rise before the beans rot.

“We’re sitting on the edge of our seat,” Mr. Karel said."

More than half of our soybean exports went to China last year. Since China has cut their purchases of US soybeans by 94%, you do the math.

The hope is that prices will rise before the beans rot.

“We’re sitting on the edge of our seat,” Mr. Karel said.

President Trump sees tariffs as a tool to force changes in America’s economic relationships with China and other major trading partners. His tough approach, he says, will revive American industries like steel and auto manufacturing that have lost ground to foreign rivals. But that is coming at a steep cost for some industries, like farming, that have thrived in the era of globalization by exporting goods to foreign markets.

BUSINESS
Here’s why Iowa soybean farmers are worried about retaliatory tariffs against agriculture products.

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China and other trading partners hit with the tariffs, including the European Union, have sought to maximize the political impact of their reprisals. The European Union imposed tariffs on bourbon, produced in Kentucky, the home state of the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, and on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, from Wisconsin, the home state of House Speaker Paul Ryan. China's decision to impose tariffs on soybeans squeezes some of Mr. Trump's staunchest supporters across the Midwestern farm belt.


Harvesting soybeans south of Luverne, N.D. The 2018 harvest is unusually large — and unusually hard to sell.CreditDan Koeck for The New York Times

Image
Harvesting soybeans south of Luverne, N.D. The 2018 harvest is unusually large — and unusually hard to sell.CreditDan Koeck for The New York Times
Both Mr. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China have declared their desire to reduce trade barriers.

“Openness has become a trademark of China,” Mr. Xi said Monday at a trade fair in Shanghai that the Chinese government described as an opportunity for foreign companies to display their wares. Mr. Trump, for his part, said last week that “we’re much closer” to striking a deal with China, though administration officials have said the two sides remain far apart, and no deal is imminent.

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Like most successful American exports, soybeans are produced at high efficiency by a small number of workers using cutting-edge technologies, like tractors connected to satellites so the optimal mix of fertilizers can be spread on each square foot of farmland. The United States exported $26 billion in soybeans last year, and more than half went to China.

Some farmers in North Dakota say they trust Mr. Trump to negotiate in the nation’s interest. Mr. Karel said many of his customers wear red “Make America Great Again” caps and insist that the pain of lost business and lower profits is worthwhile. They say they’ll suffer now so their children benefit later — echoing the argument Mr. Trump has made.

Others are less enthused. Greg Gebeke, who farms 5,000 acres outside Arthur with two of his brothers, said he struggled to understand the administration’s goals.

“I’m trying to follow and figure out who the winners are in this tariff war,” Mr. Gebeke said. “I know who one of the losers are and that’s us. And that’s painful.”

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One of the Arthur Companies' grain elevators, in Arthur, N.D.CreditDan Koeck for The New York Times

Image

One of the Arthur Companies' grain elevators, in Arthur, N.D.CreditDan Koeck for The New York Times
North Dakota’s soybean industry was created by Chinese demand for the beans, which are crushed to make feed for animals and oil for human consumption.

China is by far the world’s largest importer of soybeans. The country consumed 110 million tons of soybeans in 2017, and 87 percent of those beans were imported — the vast majority from either Brazil or the United States. While soybeans are grown throughout the Midwest, the soybean fields of North Dakota are the part of soybean country that is closest to the Pacific Ocean, and so its beans are mostly sent to China.

POLITICS
Days before the midterms, President Trump has softened his tone on the trade war with China.

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In the mid-1990s, there were 450,000 acres of soybeans in the state. Last year, there were 6.4 million. As the state’s production of soybeans increased, companies spent millions of dollars on larger grain elevators, on the 110-car trains that carry the soybeans west to the Pacific Coast, on bigger terminals at the ports. A few years ago, Mr. Gebeke traded his grain drill, used to plant wheat, for a second machine to plant soybeans.

The Arthur Companies in 2016 opened a shiny drying, storage and loading facility that can hold 2.7 million bushels of beans waiting for the next train.

Image

Soybeans being delivered to the Arthur Companies’ grain elevator.CreditDan Koeck for The New York Times
Image

A sample of soybeans from the Arthur Companies’ elevator.CreditDan Koeck for The New York Times
Soybean farmers also spent millions of dollars cultivating the Chinese market. Farmers in North Dakota and other states contribute a fixed percentage of revenue to a federal fund called the “soybean checkoff” that pays for marketing programs like trade missions to China and research intended to convince Chinese farmers that pigs raised on American soybeans grow faster and fatter. In 2015, North Dakota soybean farmers footed the bill for an event in Shanghai honoring the 10 “most loyal” buyers of American soybeans.

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The soybean industry’s sales pitch emphasized the reliability of American infrastructure and the political stability of the United States. The message was that the Chinese could be confident that American farmers would deliver high quality soybeans.

“I’ve been to China 25 times in the last decade talking about the dependability of U.S. soybeans,” said Kirk Leeds, the chief executive of the Iowa Soybean Association. By undermining that reputation, he said, “we have done long-term damage to the industry.”


Agriculture dominates the town of Arthur. Across the street from the house is the Arthur Companies headquarters, where a pile of corn is in temporary storage.CreditDan Koeck for The New York Times

Image

Agriculture dominates the town of Arthur. Across the street from the house is the Arthur Companies headquarters, where a pile of corn is in temporary storage. The last two decades were a fat season in the soybean belt. The grain silos and pickup trucks in Cass County are shiny and new. Mr. Karel said a significant number of the farmers who sell crops to his company had done so well they purchased winter homes around Phoenix.

But the mood is souring quickly. Mr. Gebeke’s wife, Debra, a retired psychologist, has returned to work at North Dakota State University, to counsel distraught farmers. Public health officials in North Dakota, already confronting a recent rise in suicides, are concerned about the impact of falling prices, particularly on younger farmers with high levels of debt.

The drying tower at the Arthur Companies’ newest elevator, opened in 2016.CreditDan Koeck for The New York Times
Mr. Gebeke, 65, recalled President Jimmy Carter’s decision to suspend wheat sales to the Soviet Union in 1979. The embargo ended two years later but, by then, the Soviets were getting more of their grain from Ukraine. Speaking of the soybean standoff, he said, “They could get together tomorrow and iron this thing all out and I don’t think we’ll ever get all of our market back.”

As China swallows the world’s supply of non-American soybeans, other countries are buying more beans from the United States, especially European nations that usually import beans from Brazil.

Some nations that grow soybeans, like Canada, are shipping their own beans to China at high prices and then buying American beans at lower prices to meet domestic demand. Taiwan, seeking to curry favor, signed a deal to buy more American soybeans over the next two years.

None of this is nearly enough. During the first six weeks of the current export year, which began in September, American soybean exports to China are down by about six million tons from last year, while soybean exports to the rest of the world are up by only three million tons.

Some analysts predict China will be forced to buy more American beans after it exhausts other sources. Others are hopeful that China and the United States will reach a deal to remove the tariffs.

But waiting carries risks. Soybeans can spoil, and Brazil harvests its crop in the spring, creating fresh competition for American beans. “Hope is unfortunately a terrible marketing plan,” said Nancy Johnson, executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association.

The industry continues to seek new markets. Jim Sutter, chief executive of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, said he was focused on persuading Indians to eat more chicken. The council, which already provides funding to Indian trade groups, is planning to back an advertising campaign. “People in India will eat more protein as the economy grows, but our job is to speed that up,” Mr. Sutter said.

The Trump administration said in August that it would distribute $3.6 billion to soybean farmers to offset the decline in market prices. The subsidy rate of 82.5 cents per bushel, however, covers less than half of the losses facing North Dakota farmers at current market prices.

Brandon Hokana, whose family farms 3,500 acres near Ellendale, N.D., estimates that they need a price of $8.75 per bushel of soybeans to break even. Last year at this time, soybeans could be sold for almost $10 per bushel. Now, local elevators are offering prices below $7.

Farmers typically begin to purchase seeds and fertilizer before the end of the year, so the low prices are shaping next year’s crop. The Hokanas divided their land evenly between soybeans and corn this year; next, they plan to plant half as many acres of soybeans. Instead they will devote more land to corn, and also to some wheat for the first time in two decades, and perhaps specialty crops like peas and black beans.

Mr. Hokana knows that other farmers are likely to make similar decisions, and that the corn market next fall may be glutted. Specialty crops like peas and edible beans command higher prices, but also require more work and specialized equipment. Also, unlike the big cash crops, specialty crops can’t be hedged. That means the farmer carries all the risk of a bad year.

“The goal for next year,” Mr. Hokana said, “is just to break even.”

 

Cmon man!
Over the last decade, as the debt ballooned, despicables spewed not to worry, or it wasn't despicables fault, and for damn sure not obamas fault.
Trump hasn't even been in office 2 years and despicables are hyperventilating, cause trump. And despicables still refuse to acknowledge that the economy is booming because of trump, not in spite of him.
Question; if the current economy is obamas doing, then the current debt is his as well, right?
Tax cuts are the right thing to do, and the only people who think "we" should be happy to pay higher taxes think that only as long as its the other guy paying those higher taxes.

And once more; the only reason we have a deplorable president is because of hilary clinton, not because of poor angry whites.

You want a despicable president? Quit bitching about this one and find someone who can beat him.

 

The time to cut taxes is during a recession, not during a recovery.

During the Roosevelt administration, there was a steady increase in the top tax rate and a steady recovery. That is why FDR was reelected three times.

Most Americans did not get tax increases. The rich did. First, they lost fortunes on the stock market; then Roosevelt came along, blamed them for the Great Depression, encouraged their employees to form unions, and raised their taxes.

 

Its always a good time to cut taxes.

 

I hope to find someone to beat him. I agree Clinton wasn't the best candidate. I voted for Sanders in the primary. But the idea that tax cuts will pay for themselves is a lie. If the economy is, as you say, "booming", why is the national debt continuing to go up?

 

Shooter hopes we can find someone better to beat trump as well.

Shooter truly gives not a tick fart if tax cuts pay for themselves. Reigning in government is a good thing and cutting taxes is one good way to do that.

Way to early to see if trump can do what he said about the debt. Give the man a chance.

 

If you could keep yourself from over-generalizing for a second or two, I was a loud detractor of the management of the economy ever since Glass-Steagal was repealed back in 1999. The economy, both private and public, have been horribly mismanaged since then. On the public side, this is largely the fault of Congress, who doesn't have the collective stones to make tough decisions for the long-term good. On the private side this is largely the fault of financial institutions that pervert their purpose within the economy with overtly predatory and unethical policies and practices.

Anybody who puts the credit or blame for the short-term performance of a modern economy like ours on the current POTUS just doesn't understand how global economies function.

 

But he isn't "reigning it in" and this is all part of the Republican lie. They don't wan't to cut spending. They just want to cut it for things like Social Security and Medicare that Democrats support. Trump wants to INCREASE military spending by 10%! This is while the military continues to have an accountability problem, purchasing $1200 coffee mugs, and couldn't pass an audit if it was performed by their drunk uncle. WE DO NOT NEED MORE MILITARY SPENDING. The US spends more on its DOD than the next 10 countries COMBINED.

 

Now see, you drank the kool aide. The lie that deplorables want to cut social security is a despicable scare tactic that surfaces every time a deplorable legislator talks about reigning in government.
Yes we need to cut pentagon waste; we need to cut government waste.

Again, obama and bush had a decade to fuck up the debt. Trump said he can fix it in 8. Give the man at least a couple more years to show results.

 

Dude, do you think I just make this shit up?

https://www.newsweek.com/deficit-bu...ecurity-medicaid-medicare-entitlement-1172941

"After instituting a $1.5 trillion tax cut and signing off on a $675 billion budget for the Department of Defense, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday that the only way to lower the record-high federal deficit would be to cut entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

"It’s disappointing, but it’s not a Republican problem," McConnell said of the deficit, which grew 17 percent to $779 billion in fiscal year 2018. McConnell explained to Bloomberg that "it’s a bipartisan problem: Unwillingness to address the real drivers of the debt by doing anything to adjust those programs to the demographics of America in the future." The deficit has increased 77 percent since McConnell became majority leader in 2015.

New Treasury Department analysis on Monday revealed that corporate tax cuts had a significant impact on the deficit this year. Federal revenue rose by 0.04 percent in 2018, a nearly 100 percent decrease on last year’s 1.5 percent. In fiscal year 2018, tax receipts on corporate income fell to $205 billion from $297 billion in 2017."

If the House, Senate and executive branch are under Republican control and they pass a $1.5 TRILLION tax cut, while increasing military spending, the increased deficit most certainly is a Republican problem.

How do these fuckers sleep at night?