Give me a break; there are good and bad estimates.

Keep in mind that every respected polling agency predicted a Hilary win in 2016 back in the states. All based on good data and all were wrong

Here is a thought. When the US military had a large problem with syphilis, they decided to get blood samples from every soldier but the testing was time consuming and expensive.

The rather brilliant solution was to save all the samples but blend them 10 at a time for testing. If the blend was negative then they moved on but if it was positive then they individually tested all ten in that blend.

Why not do this with this virus? It would at least give us a much better estimate of the proportion of people affected.

Scientific insight would indicate that seeing how the virus operates in real living systems is always best.

May I ask why you ignore preventable deaths which are orders of magnitude higher in favor of this disease in which they are much less preventable?

The ad hominems are not helpful. Why do you so regularly use them? Would you speak to someone like this face to face. If not then why here?

 

Well you are not interested in most data like the waste water monitoring which is a very large sample indeed!

Thinskin

 

Here are the current world death totals from C-19 (and all the other deaths people seem to care much less about)

Deaths from Covid-19
338,101


4,367,966
People who died of hunger this year


328,891
Deaths caused by water related diseases this year



5,070,119
Communicable disease deaths this year



2,968,661
Deaths of children under 5 this year



16,606,164
Abortions this year



656,557
Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year



3,207,650
Deaths caused by cancer this year



383,096
Deaths caused by malaria this year



1,952,436
Deaths caused by smoking this year



976,836
Deaths caused by alcohol this year



418,820
Suicides this year



527,222
Road traffic accident fatalities this year

 

Moved to the more appropriate thread.

Fitted for context.
Death Odds of Dying
Heart Disease and Cancer 1 in 7
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease 1 in 28
Intentional Self-harm 1 in 95
Unintentional Poisoning by and Exposure to Noxious Substances 1 in 96
Motor Vehicle Crash 1 in 114
Fall 1 in 127
Assault by Firearm 1 in 370
Car Occupant 1 in 645
Pedestrian Incident 1 in 647
Motorcycle Rider Incident 1 in 985
Unintentional Drowning and Submersion 1 in 1,188
Exposure to Fire, Flames or Smoke 1 in 1,498
Choking from Inhalation and Ingestion of Food 1 in 3,461
Pedacyclist Incident 1 in 4,486
Firearms Discharge 1 in 6,905
Air and Space Transport Incidents 1 in 9,821
Exposure to Electric Current, Radiation, Temperature and Pressure 1 in 15,212
Exposure to Excessive Natural Heat 1 in 16,584
Contact with Sharp Objects 1 in 38,174
Contact with Heat and Hot Substances 1 in 56,992
Contact with Hornets, Wasps and Bees 1 in 63,225
Cataclysmic Storm 1 in 66,335
Being Bitten by a Dog 1 in 112,400
Legal Execution 1 in 119,012
Lightning Strike 1 in 161,856

So it kind of sounds like choking on food is a bigger worry than dying from this virus.

 

Moved to the more central thread

These are the latest figures I can find on the death rates of every country reporting. These were from just yesterday. Last column are numbers per million.

Sweden does NOT have the highest death rate in Europe and has a death rate of about 3.8 in ten thousand. Given the high percentages of elderly the rates of death are considerably lower in the younger demographic.

The Netherlands is slightly better at about 3.3 deaths per ten thousand.

The US is running about 2.9 per ten thousand.

Im each case, the numbers are all incredibly low .

Things need to be viewed in context.

Also Sweden did not implode it’s own economy, contribute to the sharp rise in domestic abuse from forcing people indoors together, or create a climate of terror over a threat so small. I think they did close their schools though so they did deprive their children of education which was also never necessary.

San Marino 19611 1222
Belgium 4899 799
Andorra 9827 658
Spain 4986 608
United Kingdom 3805 545
Italy 3785 539
France 2149 421
Sweden 3172 379
Sint Maarten 1896 369
Netherlands 2570 331
Ireland 4956 322
United States 4887 289
Isle of Man 4033 288
Jersey 2865 272
Guernsey 3988 206
Montserrat 2205 200
Switzerland 3569 190
Luxembourg 6357 174
Ecuador 2019 168
Canada 2150 162
Bermuda 1952 141
Portugal 2939 125
Monaco 2546 105
Germany 2157 100
Peru 3385 98
Denmark 1928 96
Brazil 1475 95
Moldova 2553 88
Iran 1577 87
Austria 1841 71
Panama 2398 69
Romania 913 60
U.S. Virgin Islands 660 57
Finland 1189 56
North Macedonia 914 53
Mexico 478 52
Slovenia 700 51
Turkey 1847 51
Hungary 376 49
Estonia 1354 48
Dominican Republic 1351 44
Norway 1550 44
Bosnia and Herzegovina 719 43
Puerto Rico 949 39
Sao Tome and Principe 1194 38
Northern Mariana Islands 374 36
Serbia 1583 34
British Virgin Islands 266 33
Chile 3237 33
Antigua and Barbuda 249 31
Kuwait 4426 31
Israel 1814 30
Bahamas 252 29
Czech Republic 819 29
Guam 957 29
Aruba 900 27
Iceland 4924 27
Liechtenstein 2116 26
Armenia 2005 25
Poland 531 25
Barbados 314 24
Croatia 549 24
United Arab Emirates 2720 24
Turks and Caicos Islands 279 23
Lithuania 570 22
Russia 2225 22
Belarus 3650 20
Bolivia 452 19
Cyprus 1054 19
Bulgaria 341 18
Honduras 350 17
Greece 266 16
Kosovo 559 16
Cayman Islands 1839 15
Algeria 184 14
Montenegro 521 14
Ukraine 482 14
Colombia 371 13
Guyana 162 13
Latvia 538 12
Malta 1214 12
Albania 340 11
Maldives 3245 11
Northern Cyprus 307 11
Saudi Arabia 1979 11
Argentina 221 9
Djibouti 1898 9
Bahrain 5423 8
Mauritius 262 8
Philippines 125 8
Cuba 170 7
Egypt 149 7
Equatorial Guinea 621 7
Oman 1456 7
Qatar 10904 7
Afghanistan 286 6
Cameroon 162 6
Curaçao 102 6
Gabon 721 6
Japan 131 6
South Africa 326 6
Trinidad and Tobago 85 6
Uruguay 213 6
Azerbaijan 383 5
Belize 44 5
Cape Verde 647 5
El Salvador 253 5
Indonesia 78 5
Liberia 54 5
Morocco 203 5
Pakistan 229 5
Sierra Leone 77 5
Slovakia 275 5
South Korea 215 5
Tajikistan 257 5
Abkhazia 102 4
Australia 276 4
Chad 36 4
Guinea-Bissau 691 4
Lebanon 150 4
Malaysia 218 4
New Zealand 231 4
Singapore 5335 4
Somalia 100 4
Tunisia 89 4
Bangladesh 179 3
China 59 3
Congo 85 3
Georgia 195 3
Guatemala 151 3
India 87 3
Iraq 97 3
Jamaica 191 3
Mali 47 3
Nicaragua 43 3
Niger 41 3
Sudan 74 3
Brunei 307 2
Burkina Faso 38 2
Costa Rica 179 2
Eswatini 201 2
Haiti 57 2
Kazakhstan 406 2
Kyrgyzstan 201 2
Paraguay 115 2
Senegal 174 2
Suriname 19 2
Togo 47 2
Comoros 39 1
DR Congo 20 1
Ghana 214 1
Guinea 251 1
Hong Kong 142 1
Ivory Coast 89 1
Jordan 64 1
Kenya 24 1
Mauritania 42 1
Nigeria 34 1
Thailand 46 1
Yemen 6 1
Angola 2 0
Anguilla 202 0
Benin 12 0
Bhutan 28 0
Botswana 12 0
Burundi 4 0
Cambodia 8 0
Central African Republic 79 0
Dominica 223 0
East Timor 17 0
Eritrea 11 0
Ethiopia 4 0
Falkland Islands 4065 0
Faroe Islands 3567 0
Fiji 20 0
French Polynesia 217 0
Gambia 10 0
Gibraltar 4482 0
Greenland 196 0
Grenada 196 0
Laos 3 0
Lesotho 0 0
Libya 10 0
Macau 65 0
Madagascar 15 0
Malawi 4 0
Mongolia 42 0
Mozambique 5 0
Myanmar 4 0
Namibia 8 0
Nepal 17 0
New Caledonia 66 0
Palestine 85 0
Papua New Guinea 1 0
Rwanda 26 0
Saint Kitts and Nevis 284 0
Saint Lucia 101 0
Saint Pierre and Miquelon 167 0
Seychelles 112 0
South Ossetia 635 0
South Sudan 38 0
Sri Lanka 48 0
Syria 3 0
Taiwan 19 0
Tanzania 9 0
Uganda 3 0
Uzbekistan 89 0
Vatican City 14545 0
Venezuela 27 0
Vietnam 3 0
Zambia 48 0
Zimbabwe 3 0

 

Also moved to the more central thread

Cases per million per country (1st column)

San Marino 19611 1222
Vatican City 14545 0
Qatar 10904 7
Andorra 9827 658
Luxembourg 6357 174
Bahrain 5423 8
Singapore 5335 4
Spain 4986 608
Ireland 4956 322
Iceland 4924 27
Belgium 4899 799
United States 4887 289
Gibraltar 4482 0
Kuwait 4426 31
Falkland Islands 4065 0
Isle of Man 4033 288
Guernsey 3988 206
United Kingdom 3805 545
Italy 3785 539
Belarus 3650 20
Switzerland 3569 190
Faroe Islands 3567 0
Peru 3385 98
Maldives 3245 11
Chile 3237 33
Sweden 3172 379
Portugal 2939 125
Jersey 2865 272
United Arab Emirates 2720 24
Netherlands 2570 331
Moldova 2553 88
Monaco 2546 105
Panama 2398 69
Russia 2225 22
Montserrat 2205 200
Germany 2157 100
Canada 2150 162
France 2149 421
Liechtenstein 2116 26
Ecuador 2019 168
Armenia 2005 25
Saudi Arabia 1979 11
Bermuda 1952 141
Denmark 1928 96
Djibouti 1898 9
Sint Maarten 1896 369
Turkey 1847 51
Austria 1841 71
Cayman Islands 1839 15
Israel 1814 30
Serbia 1583 34
Iran 1577 87
Norway 1550 44
Brazil 1475 95
Oman 1456 7
Estonia 1354 48
Dominican Republic 1351 44
Malta 1214 12
Sao Tome and Principe 1194 38
Finland 1189 56
Cyprus 1054 19
Guam 957 29
Puerto Rico 949 39
North Macedonia 914 53
Romania 913 60
Aruba 900 27
Czech Republic 819 29
Gabon 721 6
Bosnia and Herzegovina 719 43
Slovenia 700 51
Guinea-Bissau 691 4
U.S. Virgin Islands 660 57
Cape Verde 647 5
South Ossetia 635 0
Equatorial Guinea 621 7
Lithuania 570 22
Kosovo 559 16
Croatia 549 24
Latvia 538 12
Poland 531 25
Montenegro 521 14
Ukraine 482 14
Mexico 478 52
Bolivia 452 19
Kazakhstan 406 2
Azerbaijan 383 5
Hungary 376 49
Northern Mariana Islands 374 36
Colombia 371 13
Honduras 350 17
Bulgaria 341 18
Albania 340 11
South Africa 326 6
Barbados 314 24
Northern Cyprus 307 11
Brunei 307 2
Afghanistan 286 6
Saint Kitts and Nevis 284 0
Turks and Caicos Islands 279 23
Australia 276 4
Slovakia 275 5
British Virgin Islands 266 33
Greece 266 16
Mauritius 262 8
Tajikistan 257 5
El Salvador 253 5
Bahamas 252 29
Guinea 251 1
Antigua and Barbuda 249 31
New Zealand 231 4
Pakistan 229 5
Dominica 223 0
Argentina 221 9
Malaysia 218 4
French Polynesia 217 0
South Korea 215 5
Ghana 214 1
Uruguay 213 6
Morocco 203 5
Anguilla 202 0
Eswatini 201 2
Kyrgyzstan 201 2
Greenland 196 0
Grenada 196 0
Georgia 195 3
Jamaica 191 3
Algeria 184 14
Bangladesh 179 3
Costa Rica 179 2
Senegal 174 2
Cuba 170 7
Saint Pierre and Miquelon 167 0
Guyana 162 13
Cameroon 162 6
Guatemala 151 3
Lebanon 150 4
Egypt 149 7
Hong Kong 142 1
Japan 131 6
Philippines 125 8
Paraguay 115 2
Seychelles 112 0
Curaçao 102 6
Abkhazia 102 4
Saint Lucia 101 0
Somalia 100 4
Iraq 97 3
Tunisia 89 4
Ivory Coast 89 1
Uzbekistan 89 0
India 87 3
Trinidad and Tobago 85 6
Congo 85 3
Palestine 85 0
Central African Republic 79 0
Indonesia 78 5
Sierra Leone 77 5
Sudan 74 3
New Caledonia 66 0
Macau 65 0
Jordan 64 1
China 59 3
Haiti 57 2
Liberia 54 5
Sri Lanka 48 0
Zambia 48 0
Mali 47 3
Togo 47 2
Thailand 46 1
Belize 44 5
Nicaragua 43 3
Mauritania 42 1
Mongolia 42 0
Niger 41 3
Comoros 39 1
Burkina Faso 38 2
South Sudan 38 0
Chad 36 4
Nigeria 34 1
Bhutan 28 0
Venezuela 27 0
Rwanda 26 0
Kenya 24 1
DR Congo 20 1
Fiji 20 0
Suriname 19 2
Taiwan 19 0
East Timor 17 0
Nepal 17 0
Madagascar 15 0
Benin 12 0
Botswana 12 0
Eritrea 11 0
Gambia 10 0
Libya 10 0
Tanzania 9 0
Cambodia 8 0
Namibia 8 0
Yemen 6 1
Mozambique 5 0
Burundi 4 0
Ethiopia 4 0
Malawi 4 0
Myanmar 4 0
Laos 3 0
Syria 3 0
Uganda 3 0
Vietnam 3 0
Zimbabwe 3 0
Angola 2 0
Papua New Guinea 1 0
Lesotho 0 0

 

It's going to be interesting ,
not that it isn't already.

Now we have covid under control , and at least for now , down to an almost no threat level ,
being weeks since we had any cases from outside known infected groups/bubbles , and three weeks since easing of restrictions , two weeks from more extensive easing.
(for any interested , we just had our first new case in a week ,
but they were from a known group , and that person had already been in isolation for weeks , so almost no chance they passed it on , and certainly not outside of the already know risk bubble , making it an almost no further risk case anyway)
we can observe the various results and effects of the veriety of WW "experiments"
on how to deal with a true WW pandemic .
(the first in a hundred years to actually reach virtually every occupied part of the world , and probably the first ever)

For example , here , after near two months of effective restrictions , not only have we stopped Covid 19 , but also for the moment , things like the common cold and influenza.
(possibly others like measles, mumps , and chickenpox etc to ,
since our lockdown has surpassed the incubation and infectious times of most regular infections , thereby killing most of the survival links in the chains of infection)

Added to the above , everybody is super observant of any health issues , in case it may indicate the onset of Covid ,
so they are also getting other infections diagnosed , isolated and treated much earlier than in normal times.

Now we're getting back to normal , except for international movement , how long will it be before we get the annual flu epidemic and a return of widespread colds.
And ,
with everyone comming into the country being quarantined , and a much improved coverage with this year's flu vaccine ,
what will the overall results be.

One thing for sure is , baring some beyond our control circumstance , the infection and death rates will be lower , and possibly much lower.

(Perhaps we should have an annual
"Lockdown Holiday" )

Another thing that getting success early has allowed;
With the much reduced risk of infection and transmission , our blood transfusion service can call for and accept plasma donations from survivors ,
so as to be able to help treat any future high risk victims with antibody carrying infusions.
(while it is not yet known just how effective plasma treatment is , all the indications are that is at the very least helpful to high risk patients ,
and at least it is a tried and safe , effective type of treatment.
The only one at the moment)

So all in all , lots of interesting stuff all around the world to keep an eye on ,
while we're getting back to the new normal.

Must say , while I didn't particularly miss anything , it is great being able to go enjoy a chat n a beer , a catch-up and observe the world going bye and so on again .

It has for now at least , become just normal to use hand sanitizer , fill in contact tracking lists , and avoid close contact like embracing , shaking hands , kissing etc ,
none of which is any hardship really ,
and certainly not for an old semi hermit like myself , lol.

These new habits , if they hold , may also reduce many transmissions in the long term also.
I've often observed the excessive handshaking , embracing and kissing , and avoided it , without thinking about the fact it may be part of the reason I don't catch everything going around.
So ,,
maybe if this more sensible daily greetings regime sticks ,
Many more people may suffer many less infections.

Some foods for thought.
I'm about off out for a beer

again

 

I see Brazil is not giving up on thier quest to
foot it with the leaders in the
American Virus Stakes.

while they can probably never manage to catch up ,
they can at least match the US infection rates
at around or over 20,000 per day.

Congratulations Brazil.

You are now officially an elite American Virus breeder.

 

The American states who decided to play the c-19 lottery seem to be doing ok.

 

Meanwhile
back in Sweden.


The Public Health Agency "had" calculated a quarter of the people of Stockholm would have been infected by the start of May.
but
Tegnell said probably around 20 per cent of the people in Stockholm had "now" been infected with Covid-19.
note date;
Coronavirus: Antibody figures raise concerns about Sweden's Covid-19 strategy
09:51, May 22 2020

While that was slightly lower than had been expected,
it was still a good fit with the earlier calculations, he said.
really ?

But Tom Britton, a professor of mathematics at Stockholm University,
"who helped develop the forecasting
model"
said
it would have been better if more people had developed antibodies.

The result could mean
the calculations made by himself
and the Public Health Agency
were wrong,
no shit Sherlock

or possibly that many of those infected had not developed antibodies, Dagens Nyheter quoted him saying.

and the rocket science is ,,,,
there was no reason to believe Covid-19 would disappear as more people developed antibodies, Tegnell said.

For the disease to disappear, the immunity would have to be combined with a vaccine.


Oh.
did I mention ?
The consensus is ;
That between 70 and 90% of a population need to be infected (or vaccinated)
go gain herd immunity

Must do better Sweden

So get out there n infect your families and friends .

Quick smart now

 

and back to the crime scene:

Series 57
Episode 13.

Distract Divide Divert D'spiscion

Trump administration discussed conducting first US nuclear test in decades
14:54, May 23 2020

(is this his new treatment for the American Virus ?
to replace oxybullshityn)

 

Again look at the percentages of death and compare them to the rates of starvation and other deaths that you feel are inconsequential compared to covid-19. I regularly produce the data as I did just yesterday. Starvation and communicable diseases amount to amount 10 million deaths so far this year alone. If there is an afterlife and if these dead come to you and ask why you ignored them in favor of your pet project how will you justify yourself?

 

Moronic....this is not a static situation it is fluid and how many people do you think will die of starvation and disease if we let covid-19 just run its course!

Plank!!

This is from two months ago......try reading!

Scientist Explains What Would Happen If “The US Does Absolutely Nothing And Lets Virus Take Its Course”

If we do nothing, the effects that the novel coronavirus can have on society can be devastating. That’s what the Imperial College London team concluded after running the simulation of likely outcomes in the US and the UK based on different possible strategies we can take. Fortunately, if the right steps are taken, the impact of the disease can be greatly reduced.

Dixie State University history professor Jeremy C. Young took to Twitter and summarized the Imperial College’s findings in an easy to understand way. TL;DR suppressing the virus until a vaccine can be made will save countless lives and is the best strategy.

https://www.boredpanda.com/scientis...oogle&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

Thinskin

 

My statistics are from yesterday. Calm down. Emotions are not tools of cognition nor helpful

 

I agree with this economic analysis that in the fight against the fucking virus every little helps!

https://hbr.org/2020/05/we-shouldnt-wait-for-a-breakthrough-in-the-covid-19-pandemic

Thinskin

 

And of the other and much greater threats to human life which I have carefully presented..chickenfeed to you correct? What death will come for you Thinskin???It won’t be this virus. Cancer or heart disease.
Worry about that probably cancer or heart disease will kill you!

 

You know, we do worry about cancer and heart disease. That's why asbestos and cigarettes are the subject of so many regulations. We take reasonable precautions based on the hazard.

Strange as it seems, not every hazard requires the same precautions. Weird, huh?

As far as can be known, if a cancer patient visits a nursing home, the incidence of cancer among the residents is not affected. Truly weird.

On the other hand, some diseases are contagious and comparing the precautions for those with non contagious diseases is like demanding carcinogens be removed from preschools to prevent the spread of chickenpox.

In the meantime, we'll have to deal with people who don't understand anything about either.

 

CDC Test Counting Error Leaves Epidemiologists 'Really Baffled'
Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Sheila Kaplan and Sarah Mervosh
The New York TimesMay 23, 2020, 9:12 AM CDT


WASHINGTON — As it tracks the coronavirus’s spread, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is combining tests that detect active infection with those that detect recovery from COVID-19 — a system that muddies the picture of the pandemic but raises the percentage of Americans tested as President Donald Trump boasts about testing.

Now that serology tests, which look for antibodies in the blood of people who have recovered, are more widespread, CDC officials said Friday they would work to separate them from the results of diagnostic tests, which detect active infection. One of the agency’s data tracker websites has been lumping them together.

Stunned epidemiologists say data from antibody tests and active virus tests should never be mixed because diagnostic testing seeks to quantify the amount of active disease in the population. Serological testing can also be unreliable. And patients who have had both diagnostic and serology tests would be counted twice in the totals.

“It just doesn’t make any sense; all of us are really baffled,” said Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida.

Epidemiologists, state health officials and a spokeswoman for the CDC said there was no ill intent; they attributed the flawed reporting system to confusion and fatigue in overworked state and local health departments that typically track infections — not tests — during outbreaks. The CDC relies on states to report their data.

If the agency intended to bolster the testing numbers for political purposes, the advantage to Trump would be minimal. The Atlantic reported that on Monday, one of the CDC’s trackers reported that 10.2 million viral tests had been conducted nationwide since the pandemic began. On Wednesday, after the CDC stopped differentiating virus tests, the number went to 10.8 million.

A spokeswoman for the CDC, Kristen Nordlund, said viral testing was much more common than antibody testing in the pandemic’s early days, and some states combined the virus tests together with the few antibody results they had.

“Now that serology testing is more widely available, CDC is working to differentiate those tests from the viral tests and will report this information, differentiated by test type, publicly on our COVID Data Tracker website in the coming weeks,” Nordlund said.

State health officials in Virginia, Texas, Georgia and Vermont also said they were beginning to disaggregate their testing data.

“This is not an intentional misuse of information — it’s part of the fog of the infectious disease war,” said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota professor and former state epidemiologist who was sharply critical of the disease control centers early in the pandemic. “We’ve done surveillance for cases, and now we’re all trying to do testing, and it presents unique challenges.”

Whatever the reason, the numbers are fueling Trump’s frequent — and inaccurate — boasts that the United States is doing more testing “than all other countries combined,” a claim that the fact-checking website PolitiFact has declared “pants on fire wrong.” Governors rely on testing in deciding how far to go in reopening their economies. With all 50 states moving to reopen, accurate tracking is essential.

“We’re like the blind epidemiologists trying to understand the elephant,” said Michael Levy, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Pennsylvania. Health officials, he said, need good reporting to “understand the relationship between the epidemic that we can’t see and the data that we can see.”

Scott Becker, the executive director of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, said there was another reason states were tracking testing: Trump wants the numbers.

“We’ve never needed to capture test volume. That is what the White House wanted to know, how many tests were being done,” Becker said, adding, “Ordinarily this all works through the public health system, but in this response, there’s been a drive to have data numbers, at multiple levels.”

Like Nordlund at the CDC, health officials around the country say diagnostic tests, which detect the presence of the virus, had initially far outpaced antibody tests, so agencies grouped them together. While both numbers are helpful in assessing the scale of the outbreak, only viral test numbers can indicate a state’s ability to identify people who currently have the virus.

Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said mixing the two numbers would distort the picture of the coronavirus outbreak in various parts of the country. In most places outside of New York City, the center of the outbreak in the United States, the proportion of people who have been exposed to the virus, and who would produce a positive result on an antibody test, is likely to be lower than 10%.

“What that means is that those tests are more likely to come back negative, which means that you could end up with a misleading picture overall,” he said. “You’ll think there is less disease there than there actually is. That is not something that is not going to be helpful, to say the least.”

The mixing of the results was first reported by The Atlantic and local news outlets, like the Richmond Times-Dispatch, the Texas Observer, the Columbus (Georgia) Ledger-Enquirer and WLRN, a radio station in Miami. Virginia first faced criticism for combining its test results this month but has since stopped the practice, effective May 14, the state’s health department said Friday.

Clark Mercer, the chief of staff for Gov. Ralph Northam of Virginia, a Democrat, initially defended the strategy last week at a news conference, saying that it was important for the state to report totals that included antibody tests in order to be ranked properly compared with other states.

“If we are going to be compared to all 50 states,” he said, “I want to make sure it is apples to apples.”

But a few days later, Northam, who is a physician, said he had only recently learned that the data was being combined and had since directed the health department to disaggregate the results. Serology, or antibody, tests accounted for 9% of tests in Virginia, Northam said — a figure that Dr. Lilian Peake, the Virginia state epidemiologist, said would not have drastically changed the state’s overall results.

“For the 20 years that I’ve been a public health leader, we’ve never focused on testing, and this is a new virus, so we are still learning about it,” Peake said Friday. “The tests are being developed, and we are still learning how to interpret them.”

Health officials in Texas also announced this week that they had made changes to exclude antibody tests from its tally of total tests, and Vermont previously removed tests for antibodies from the numbers on its website.

“If we include serology, we inflate the denominator,” Erik Filkorn, a spokesman for Vermont’s health operations center, said in a statement Friday, adding that the effect had been minimal. Serology tests accounted for 4% of all tests in Vermont, he said, and including them may have increased the percent positive rate by “a fraction of one percentage point.”

In Georgia, a state that is being closely watched after it became one of the first to reopen businesses last month, officials said they were working to improve transparency after reports that up to 15% of the state’s tests were antibody tests. While Georgia’s coronavirus caseload has remained more or less the same in recent weeks, the latest developments raised questions about the accuracy of the numbers.

“The integrity of our data is absolutely our No. 1 priority,” Dr. Kathleen Toomey, the commissioner of the Georgia Department of Public Health, said at a news conference Thursday.

The Pennsylvania Department of Health is still using a small number of positive antibody tests to inform the state’s total case numbers, a spokesman, Nate Wardle, said Friday. But he said those antibody tests were not skewing results — they represent less than 1% of total cases in the state, he said — and were not being used to decide whether regions should reopen.

Wardle said patients who had a positive antibody test as well as symptoms or a high-risk exposure had been included in the state’s “probable” test count, based on guidance from the CDC, which allowed the state to track whether patients who had symptoms early on may have had the virus.

“We think the way we are reporting the data is correct,” he said, adding that the probable cause cases were broken out and kept separately from confirmed cases. “We are not using our probable cases in any of our decision-making.”

 

Well Bron seems to have adequately dealt with your colossal stupidity probably caused by an inability to asssimilate information and a gangantuan lack of empathy for your fellow man............what I am avoiding doing is passing the virus on to people more vulnerable than I am because presently we have no effective anti-virals and a vaccine is a long way of with several question marks over if and when!

You skew information to suit your commentary.........I just counter it because I pity the poor bastard that dies of the virus because they followed your advice!

Thinskin

 

First real scientific trial on remdesivir have now been published and there is no significant effect of treatment with this drug compared to a placebo!

Whether it could be used as a prophylactic remains to be tested!

I will carry taking zinc.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext

Thinskin