The problem with shale oil and other "nontraditional" sources of oil is that they are costly to extract (and that they take a lot of energy input to get the output). Oil IS going to get dramatically more expensive as demand continues to rise and the discovery rate of new reserves begins to flatten. This is the so-called "Hubbert's Peak", which occurred in the continental U.S. back in 1970, and will probably occur worldwide within a few decades. When we hit the peak, demand will rapidly outstrip the supply, and prices will rise to levels that will make your head spin. That will make alternatives more economic, but industrial societies don't shift gears too quickly, so the dislocation to the economy will be huge.

More frightening still is that we'll probably fight to the death for the rights to whatever remaining cheap crude oil exists on the planet, and that means escalating strife in the Middle East.

We're not smart enough, apparently, to start the necessary transition now. We'll have to wait until it's a crisis, evident even to people with their heads in the sand.

 

With the allowance for oil sand and tar sand the recoverable reserve is up in the Trillions not billions.. This comes from info that is up dated weekly,, and is direct from the industry.. The greater intrest was spurred by the agreements signed in Argentena by Iran and Venzulea a few weeks back..
As you might suspect not much is allowed to reach the media. (our Gov releases) for it will drive the futures market down..
Keep your ears open in a couple of weeks, and it will start to show some interest in the Orinoco belt. This is not a new find by any means,, it was drilled into in the late 30's but was too heavy for the technology of the day..$16 dollars a barrel is the break even point for the Orinoco where the Canadan oil sand is $20 a barrel..
I understand that working the Orinoco belt is less expensive for they can power the whole process from captured natural gas..

 

Very sharp reply Kimiko:
Oil Shale, oil sand, or tar sand, are part of the equasion you suggested.. higher cost! Ecology and conservation is always a problem,, but the new wells now being drilled are something like 40 wells from one platform, so not so much damage to mother nature..the horozintal drilling is a big breakthrough for the heavy and tar crude.

 

Some of the conservation issues are being met by the newer drilling as many as 40 wells from one platform, also this is horozontal drilling.. it keeps the pickup area in more of the oil sand at one time..
Investors are not into just the canadan pipeline, but also several others.. Bogota, natural gas pipeline, and the Russian land sea pipeline, many others..

 

You are right on the money. It is amazing what actions are being taken toward the venzuela oil.. American companys get very angry when a country nationalises the oil. and Venzulea did that several years back..