Russia Is Providing Rebels In Ukraine With A Rocket System On Steroids

US intelligence sources are claiming that Russia has actually stepped up its material support for the rebels in eastern Ukraine, including heavier rocket systems. I suspect these may the BM-27 Uragan (‘Hurricane’) systems, the very kind that Moscow has been criticizing Kyiv for using in recent days.

This is a truck-mounted multiple-tube rocket launcher system akin to the previously-used BM-21 Grad on steroids, able to ripple-fire its 16 220mm rockets in 20 seconds. As such, it represents a substantial upgrade to rebel firepower.


A few quick observations.


1. OK, so maybe Putin won’t be backing away from the rebels … but it may be the storm before the calm. A willingness to supply heavy hardware, coupled with the uncompromising rhetoric from the Kremlin, does suggest that Putin has chosen not to back away from his adventure in eastern Ukraine.


However, it’s not impossible that the hope is that allowing the rebels to give Kyiv’s forces a bloody nose will allow Moscow to negotiate some terms for a ‘peace with honour’ extrication from the mess on stronger terms, given that at present, between the seizure of Slovyansk and the moral charge provided by MH17, the Ukrainian government is in unyielding mood. This can be disastrous (witness Russia clinging on in WW1 in the hope that “next battle” would provide one such victory), but can work.


2. The government forces outnumber the rebels, but their key advantages are air power and long-range artillery. With systems such as the now-infamous Buk and the BM-27, Moscow is clearly trying to neutralize the Ukrainian military's built-in advantages over pro-Russian irregular forces (the BM-27 is a useful counterbattery weapon, able to silence Ukrainian guns).


The idea is presumably to put Kyiv into the situation of facing a nasty — and higher-casualty — old-fashioned close-quarters battle in Donetsk if it wants to wipe out the rebels, hoping that Poroshenko won’t be willing to accept the costs. (Though I suspect he would, if need be.)


3. This would make the rebels more dependent on Moscow. Larger, higher-tech weaponry like the BM-27 needs maintenance, spare parts, etc. They also need ample ammunition to be effective, and unlike assault rifle rounds, these aren’t widely available in looted stockpiles and the black market.
This gives Moscow more potential authority over the rebels — and also embeds the Russians more deeply in the fight.

Read more: http://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/a-hurricane-in-the-east-are-rebels-getting-bm-27-uragan-rocket-systems/#ixzz38V0kfV1R
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[h=1]Russian execs fear lasting damage from plane crash[/h]
MOSCOW (AP) -- Having for months dismissed Western sanctions on Russia as toothless, business leaders here are now afraid that the downing of the Malaysian jetliner will bring about an international isolation that will cause serious and lasting economic damage.



Throughout the Ukrainian crisis, U.S. and European sanctions had mainly targeted a handful of individuals, sparing economic ties. Then last week the U.S. imposed penalties on some of Russia's largest corporations. And when the airliner was shot down just a day later in Ukraine, allegedly by separatists with Moscow's support, concern grew in Russia that the sanctions would only get worse as President Vladimir Putin shows little sign of cooperation.
Reinforcing those concerns, the European Union said Friday it is planning newer, tougher penalties on businesses.
"Over the past few months, there was a sense that Mr. Putin acted decisively, forcefully, and correctly, and that everybody else in the world would accommodate themselves to that reality and we'd get back to something like business as usual," said Bernard Sucher, a Moscow-based entrepreneur and board member of Aton, an independent investment bank. "Now we're talking about real fear."
It's not clear how quickly that fear and the country's overall economic pain might soften Putin's foreign policies. He keeps tight control over business leaders and still enjoys a high popularity rating. But some analysts note the fear of tougher sanctions may in fact already be having an impact, for example by keeping Russia from trying to annex eastern Ukraine the way it did with Crimea in March.
After that move, which triggered a deep freeze in relations with the West, stock markets in Russia dropped only to later rebound as investors understood the country's trade relations would remain largely unscathed. Europe, which is in frail economic health, dared not block energy imports from Russia or the trade in goods such as cars. Oil companies like BP and ExxonMobil continued their operations in Russia, with some even signing new deals.
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The convoy of hearses with the remains of the victims of Malaysia Airlines MH17 downed over rebel-he …

The U.S. took a tougher stance, but until last week was also careful to limit sanctions to asset freezes on individuals who were perceived to have had a hand in destabilizing Ukraine.
On July 16, the night before the Malaysia Airlines jet was shot down, Russian markets appeared to have fully recovered, with the MICEX stock index adding 23 percent since March 1.
Then last week, the U.S. announced new sanctions that had investors in Russia fear a turn for the worse. The U.S. shut off its financial markets for a broad swath of defense companies as well as Russia's largest oil company, Rosneft, gas producer Novatek, which is half-owned by a close Putin ally, and a major bank, VEB. The move offered business executives a glimpse of what they had thought would never happen: serious international isolation.
According to Alexis Rodzianko, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, those sanctions were the first to really pack a punch because they were "broader and more specific: they went beyond the symbolic."
Rodzianko said anecdotal evidence suggests some investment decisions were delayed, "particularly when people were just considering coming in to the market."
EU corporate leaders talk sanctions Play Video


When the Malaysian airliner went down one day later, investors worried conditions would deteriorate further.
The stock market has fallen over 6 percent since Thursday last week. Investors keep pulling money out of the country. They withdrew $74.6 billion in the first six months of the year, a figure forecast to reach $100 billion for the whole of 2014 — almost twice the $60 billion in withdrawals seen last year.
Growth, meanwhile, is nose-diving. The International Monetary Fund this week slashed its forecast for 2014 from 1.3 percent to 0.2 percent. And the currency is unstable — Russia's central bank on Friday raised its key interest rate by half a point to 8 percent, saying the heightened geopolitical risks are putting pressure on the ruble.
Even the world of sports has been drawn in. FIFA, the governing body for world soccer, faced calls from German lawmakers to move the 2018 World Cup from Russia, but swiftly rejected the notion.
EU countries, meanwhile, are stepping up the pressure. On Friday they reached a preliminary agreement to follow the U.S. in sanctioning businesses. Officials said the deal, which has yet to be finalized, would limit trade in key sectors like defense and technology. It would also restrict access to European capital markets for Russian state-owned financial groups. Last year alone, 47 percent — or 7.5 billion euros ($10.2 billion) — of all the bonds issued by such institutions came from EU markets.
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FILE - In this Monday, July 21, 2014 pool file photo Russian President Vladimir Putin listens durin …

Despite all this, there is little public criticism in Russia — none at all from those with the most at stake, the oligarchs.
Russia's biggest companies denied comment for this story. One spokesman said he was not authorized even to say a "no comment" for an article about sanctions.
A person who had close ties to the government until last year told The Associated Press that it is "too risky to express concerns in public and even in closed-door meetings with Putin." The person, who spoke only on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, said tycoons usually express their concerns to government officials who in turn communicate them to the president.
That silence has been a hallmark of Putin's rule. In the early 2000s, he forged a deal with Russian businessmen in which the Kremlin offered its protection for the often murky deals that created the oligarchs' fortunes. In return, the tycoons promised to not meddle in government policy. The only man who broke this rule — Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man — was punished with two sets of charges and spent 10 years in prison before he was pardoned by Putin a month before the showcase Winter Olympics held in Russia.
In public, Putin appears unfazed by the sanctions. In a speech Tuesday, he suggested Russia should accept to sacrifice economic growth for the sake of foreign-policy objectives — a nightmare scenario for a business leader hoping to tap global markets.



But analysts note that for all his belligerent rhetoric, the Russian leader has softened on some fronts in Ukraine.
Though the first sanctions, which targeted Putin's billionaire friends, were perceived as a failure, they did work in the sense that Russia did not annex any other parts of Ukraine the way it did with Crimea, says Sergei Guriev, a prominent Russian economist now working at Sciences Po university in Paris. They also "forced the Russian government to recognize Ukrainian elections," he said.
It is unclear how long it would take for the latest sanctions' effects to trickle down and affect the wallets of ordinary Russians, who have basked in the prosperity that has characterized the Putin era and that is a key part of his high support.
Putin's support among the electorate has been as high as 80 percent this year, driven in part by a wave of chauvinism after Russia's annexation of Crimea. Serious economic contraction could pare down his approval rating, though it's likely to remain strong.
"The crisis within and over Ukraine will continue even as a vast majority of the Russian people will continue to support President Putin, and will see the United States as an adversary, even an enemy of Russia," Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow center, wrote in a commentary this week.



Putin seems to be in a balancing act, seeing how far he can pursue his geopolitical interest in Ukraine without getting hit too hard by sanctions. But the U.S. and EU's level of tolerance seems to have dropped since the Malaysian plane's downing, increasing the risk of further damaging sanctions on Russia's economy.
Russia's former long-time finance minister Alexei Kudrin blames a part of the Kremlin's elite for seeking to isolate the country internationally.
"Business wants development, wants to invest, build new factories, trade," Kudrin said in a recent interview with the Itar-TASS news agency. "And businesses are really worried about what they hear on radio and television."
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[h=1]Ukraine rebels go to the museum -- for WWII tanks and cannons[/h]
Donetsk (Ukraine) (AFP) - Visiting a museum may be the last thing on the minds of hardened insurgents in east Ukraine, but a group of them turned up at one in Donetsk -- only to make off with a World War II tank and two howitzers.





"They had written authorisation to take them away," said a bewildered guard from his sentry post outside the immense World War II museum in the insurgent-held city.


"They loaded them into a big truck. They took the tank that was least damaged. I think they're going to use them to fight," he said, refusing to give his name.


When an AFP journalist visited the museum Friday there were still markings on the ground from where the separatist fighters had revved up their vintage loot and made off.


A father and son -- the only visitors to the normally bustling complex -- gaped on in disbelief.


"Can you believe it? They're even stealing museum exhibits now," the father said, before taking a picture of his son swinging from the gun turret of one of the remaining tanks.


This is not the first time that the rebels seem to have gone back to the past in their hunt for weapons in the brutal three-month conflict pitting them against Ukraine's military.


Earlier this month footage emerged on YouTube of them purportedly firing up a WWII Stalin tank on a pedastal where it had stood for decades as a monument in the town of Kostyantynivka.


But while some might mock the rebels for resorting to such tactics, the fighting on the ground remains deadly serious. Fierce clashes continue around the two separatist bastions Donetsk and Lugansk.


Fourteen people have been killed around Donetsk and two around Lugansk in the past 24 hours, local officials said Friday. Ukraine's army said it had lost 13 soldiers.

 

[h=1]15,000 Russian Troops Reportedly Reach Ukrainian Border[/h]

Reuters has reported that Russia has now amassed 15,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, according to information supplied by a U.S. ambassador to NATO.


The Wire has translated this tweet:

"A column of BTP at the border of Ukraine. The third column in the last hour. They are driving from Dagestan and Stavropol. Road Don 4."



Reports on social media indicate the tanks are already in the Rostov region of Russian.



This Instagram from @Dinupsik reads in English, "My mom is driving to meet me. Rostov highway. #rostov #BTR #tanks #scary."

The Rostov region of Russia stretches across the east Ukrainian border of Russia, and is about 256 kilometers from Donetsk:

We will update this story as more information becomes available.



This article was originally published at http://www.thewire.com/global/2014/07/15000-russian-troops-reportedly-reach-ukrainian-border/375085/

 

[h=1]EU hits Russian intelligence chiefs with sanctions[/h]
BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union on Friday extended its Ukraine-related sanctions to target top Russian intelligence officials and leaders of the pro-Russia revolt in eastern Ukraine, official documents showed.


Among the 15 new people subjected to an EU-wide asset freeze and travel ban were Alexander Bortnikov, head of the Russian Federal Security Service, and Sergei Beseda, head of the FSB department that oversees international operations and intelligence activity. Four members of Russia's Security Council were also included on the EU list.


The new measures, designed to put pressure on Moscow and its allies in Ukraine, were announced in the EU's Official Journal, and took effect immediately. Eighteen organizations or businesses, including rebel formations in Ukraine's east, were added to the trade bloc's sanctions list at the same time.


The action brought the total number of people under EU sanction in connection with Russia's annexation of Crimea and the revolt in eastern Ukraine to 87. Two Crimea-based energy businesses had already had their EU holdings frozen.


Earlier on Friday, EU ambassadors reached a preliminary deal to go even further in sanctioning Russia, targeting its access to European capital markets and trade in the defense sector, dual-use goods and sensitive technologies.


EU spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic said the proposals were transmitted to EU officials to codify into regulations, with the ambassadors scheduled to meet again Tuesday to review the results. She said EU member states must decide whether the measures need to be approved by a summit meeting of the organization's 28 member countries to go into effect.


On Tuesday, EU foreign ministers ordered the preparation of stepped-up economic sanctions, frustrated over Russia's refusal to heed their demands to help bring about an end to the fighting in Ukraine, and with many Europeans leaders and citizens outraged by the shooting down of a Malaysian jetliner over eastern Ukraine.


In a document prepared for the ambassadors, EU officials suggested restricting Russian state-owned financial institutions' access to European capital markets. Last year alone, the document said, 47 percent — or 7.5 billion euros ($10.2 billion) worth — of all the bonds issued by such institutions came from EU financial markets.

 

[h=1]Ukraine launches offensive to retake Donetsk[/h]
DONETSK, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian officials said their forces advanced to the outskirts of a key town north of Donetsk on Saturday in hopes of retaking the stronghold held for months by pro-Russia rebels.






The move comes as Ukrainian forces appear to have gained some momentum recently by retaking control of territory from the rebels. But Russia also appears to becoming more involved in the fighting, with the U.S. and Ukraine accusing Moscow of moving heavily artillery across the border to the rebels.


Ukrainian national security spokesman Andriy Lysenko said Ukrainian forces were outside Horlikva, just north of the regional center of Donetsk.


"The direct route is open for the forces of the anti-terrorist operation to the capital of the Donbass region — the city of Donetsk," Lysenko said.


Donetsk, a city of about 1 million people, is a major center of the separatist uprising that has battled Ukrainian government forces for five months.


An Associated Press reporter found the highway north of Donetsk blocked by rebels and heard the sound of artillery to the north. Explosions were heard in the direction of the town's airport, on the northwest edge of the city, an area frequently contested by Ukrainian forces and rebels. Black smoke rose from the direction of Yakovlikva, a northern suburb of Donetsk.




About 35 miles (60 kilometers) to the east, the site where Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was shot down was still eerily empty except for the parents of one of the 298 people killed in the July 17 accident. Nine days after the accident, a full-fledged investigation still hasn't started due to the security risks posed by the nearby fighting.


But Jerzy Dyczynski and Angela Rudhart-Dyczynski, parents of 25-year-old Fatima, crossed territory held by pro-Russian rebels to reach the wreckage-strewn fields outside the village of Hrabove to visit the place of their daughter's death.


Fatima "was for peace. She will be forever for peace," her father said.


U.S. and Ukrainian officials say the plane was shot down by a missile from rebel territory, most likely by mistake.


Two more cargo planes also flew 38 more coffins carrying victims to a forensic center in the Netherlands for identification and investigation.




The planes took off Saturday from Kharkiv, a government-controlled city where the bodies have been brought from the crash site in territory held by pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian government.


Officials said the flights took the last of the 227 coffins containing victims that have been brought to Kharkiv by refrigerated train. Officials say the exact number of people held in the coffins is still to be determined by forensic experts in the Netherlands, where Ukraine has agreed to send the bodies. International observers have said there are still remains at the crash site. Access has been limited due to rebel interference and security concerns.


The disaster sparked hopes in the West that Russia would scale back its involvement in the uprising in Ukraine's east, but nine days later the opposite seems to be the case.


Russia launched artillery attacks from its soil into Ukraine on Friday, while the United States said it has seen powerful rocket systems moving closer to the Ukraine border.


Those accusations sparked a strong denial from Moscow, which accuses the U.S. of a smear campaign.




The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the United States on Saturday of conducting "an unrelenting campaign of slander against Russia, ever more relying on open lies."
The ministry took particular issue with comments Friday by White House spokesman Josh Earnest, who said Washington regards Moscow as involved in the shooting down of the airliner because it allegedly has supplied missile systems to the rebels and trained them on how to use them.


The ministry complained that these contentions have not been backed up with public evidence and it sneered at Earnest for saying the allegations are backed up by claims on social media.


"In other words, the Washington regime is basing its contentions on anti-Russian speculation gathered from the Internet that does not correspond to reality," it said.

Russia also lashed out at the latest round of Ukraine-related sanctions imposed by the European Union, saying they endanger the fight against international terrorism.



The EU sanctions, announced on Friday, impose travel bans and asset freezes on 15 people, including the head of Russia's Federal Security Service and the head of the agency's department overseeing international operations and intelligence. Four members of Russia's national security council are also on the list.


The Foreign Ministry said the sanctions show the EU is taking "a complete turn away from joint work with Russia on international and regional security, including the fight against the spread of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism (and) organized crime."


"We are sure the decisions will be greeted enthusiastically by international terrorists," the ministry said.

 

[h=1]Attacks kill Ukraine mayor, target another[/h]
Lviv (Ukraine) (AFP) - Two Ukrainian mayors have been targeted in separate attacks, authorities said Saturday, with one shot dead while the other's house was hit by an anti-tank rocket.
Oleg Babayev, mayor of the central-eastern city of Kremenchuk was killed not far from his home, the interior ministry said.
In the other attack, the house of Andry Sadovy, mayor of the western city of Lviv, was hit by a rocket fired late Friday.
No one was in the house at the time of the strike, his office said in a statement as local police launched a probe into what they described as a "terrorist attack".
Sadovy is a key figure in Ukraine's pro-European protests that led to the downfall of former president Viktor Yanukovych in February.
"To my knowledge, no rocket launchers have been used to fire shots in Lviv," said Sadovy.
Lviv, a city with a population of 750,000 close to the Polish border, is a nationalist bastion of Ukrainian-speakers.
Both Lviv and Kremenchuk have been spared from the violence plaguing eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists are locked in a deadly battle against Ukrainian forces.

 

[h=1]EU sanctions weaken anti-terror efforts - Russia[/h]
Russia says new EU sanctions against it over the Ukraine crisis will jeopardise security co-operation against terror.


The Russian foreign ministry said the EU would bear the blame for the move which sees 15 officials and 18 entities subject to asset freezes and visa bans.


The EU and US accuse Russia of backing Ukraine's rebels. Moscow denies this.


Meanwhile, the last remains of the victims of the crashed Malaysian airliner flew out of eastern Ukraine for the Netherlands.


The departure of the aircraft from the city of Kharkiv with 38 coffins brings the total number of bodies sent for identification to 227.


The Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur crashed on 17 July, killing all 298 people - including 193 Dutch nationals - on board.

Pro-Russian separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine have been accused of downing the plane by a missile.


Russia has frequently denied sending heavy weapons into Ukraine. Moscow has suggested the plane could have been shot down by the Ukrainian military. Ukraine has denied the charge.


The fighting in eastern Ukraine erupted in April and is believed to have claimed more than 1,000 lives.



'Threatening' tone
In a statement, the Russian foreign ministry said the new EU sanctions showed that the 28-member bloc was taking "a complete turn away from joint work with Russia on international and regional security, including the fight against the spread of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, organised crime and other challenges".


"We believe these decisions will be greeted enthusiastically by international terrorists".


In a separate statement, the Russian ministry also accused the US of "an unrelenting campaign of slander against Russia".


The EU sanctions were agreed after lengthy negotiations in Brussels on Friday.


The senior Russian officials targeted include Federal Security Service head Alexander Bortnikov, foreign intelligence head Mikhail Fradkov and Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Russian security council.


The leader of Russia's southern Chechnya republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, is also on the list.


The tone of the latest Russian statement on the EU sanctions is indignant, even threatening, the BBC's Sarah Rainsford in Moscow reports.


If the aim of international sanctions was to force Russia to change its stance on Ukraine, it is clear that that so far this is not happening, our correspondent says.

Crash site talks
In Kharkiv, teams of Dutch and Australian police are waiting for clearance from both Ukraine and the pro-Russian rebels to help search for the remaining bodies at the crash site near Grabove, which is controlled by the rebels.


They hope that such a deployment would allow experts, who have faced difficulties gaining access to the site, to proceed with the investigation amid continuing fighting in the region.


Malaysian PM Najib Razak has said he will fly to the Netherlands next week to discuss the issue.

 

[h=1]Pentagon Plan Would Help Ukraine Target Rebel Missiles[/h]
The Pentagon and American intelligence agencies are developing plans that would enable the Obama administration to provide specific locations of surface-to-air missiles controlled by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine so the Ukrainian government could target them for destruction, American officials said.


But the proposal has not yet been debated in the White House, a senior administration official said. It is unclear whether President Obama, who has already approved limited intelligence sharing with Ukraine, will agree to give more precise information about potential military targets, a step that would involve the United States more deeply in the conflict.


Already, the question of what kind of intelligence support to give the Ukrainian government has become part of a larger debate within the administration about how directly to confront President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and how big a role Washington should take in trying to stop Russia’s rapid delivery of powerful weapons to eastern Ukraine.
At the core of the debate, said several officials — who, like others interviewed, spoke on the condition of anonymity because the policy deliberations are still in progress — is whether the American goal should be simply to shore up a Ukrainian government reeling from the separatist attacks, or to send a stern message to Mr. Putin by aggressively helping Ukraine target the missiles Russia has provided. Those missiles have taken down at least five aircraft in the past 10 days, including Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.


Since the downing of Flight 17, a civilian jet, the flow of heavy arms into eastern Ukraine has drastically increased, the Pentagon and the State Department said on Friday, citing American intelligence reports. The Obama administration is already sharing with the Ukrainians satellite photographs and other evidence of the movement of troops and equipment along the Ukrainian-Russian border. But a senior administration official acknowledged late Friday that the data were “historical in nature,” hours or even days old, and not timely enough to use in carrying out airstrikes or other direct attacks.


“We’ve been cautious to date about things that could directly hit Russia — principally its territory,” but also its equipment, the official said. A proposal to give the Ukrainians real-time information “hasn’t gotten to the president yet,” the official said, in part because the White House has been focused on rallying support among European allies for more stringent economic sanctions against Moscow, and on gaining access for investigators to the Malaysia Airlines crash site.

But the official added that the decision on whether to provide targeting information would soon become “part of the intel mix.”


The debate over providing information about potential military targets gives the first insight into the Obama administration’s thinking on long-term strategies to bolster Ukraine, counter Russia and reassure nervous Eastern European nations, some of which have joined NATO in recent years.



Plans to share more precise targeting information with Ukraine have the strong backing of senior Pentagon officials and would fit broadly into Mr. Obama’s emerging national security doctrine of supporting allied and partner nations in defending their territory without direct American military involvement.


Several senior American military and intelligence officials are arguing that if Mr. Putin does not encounter significant resistance to Russia’s moves in Ukraine, he may be emboldened to go further. And a senior State Department official said Saturday that Secretary of State John Kerry supported sharing intelligence on the locations of surface-to-air missiles that Russia has supplied the separatists.


Providing the location of weaponry and military equipment for possible destruction — something the United States does for Iraq in its battle against Islamic extremists, for example — would not be technologically difficult. “We think we could do it easily and be very effective,” a senior military official involved in the discussions said.

“But there are issues of escalation with the Russians, and the decision about whether it’s wise to do it” is complex.


Another senior official said there were questions of whether the Ukrainian military, even if given targeting coordinates, had the reach and the precision to strike Russian-supplied antiaircraft batteries. The trucks transporting the missiles move frequently, often back and forth across the border. And if any strikes missed their targets, they could cause civilian casualties or land in Russia, giving Mr. Putin an excuse to enlarge the conflict.


“Although providing the Ukrainian forces with target location data may seem like a panacea, the actual destruction of these mobile launchers by Ukrainian forces may prove quite a bit more difficult,” said Reed Foster, an analyst at IHS Jane’s.


Mr. Foster said that Ukrainian forces had not trained extensively on using intelligence from other countries, and that any Ukrainian warplanes trying to strike missile sites would be vulnerable to ground fire. Some officials say they are worried that the Ukrainian military has been infiltrated by Russian sympathizers and agents, meaning that if the United States gave locations for targeting, the separatists could have warning of attacks.


Still, the issue has become increasingly urgent. The Pentagon said on Friday that it had seen evidence that Russia was planning a major influx of new weaponry across the border, and that it believed multiple-rocket launchers would soon be delivered from Russia.


American officials also said they had evidence that Russia was firing artillery from within its borders to attack Ukrainian military positions.

Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, NATO’s top commander, has drawn attention to a video that appears to show the Russian military firing short-range Grad rockets into Ukraine.


Ukraine is seeking all the Western help it can get as Russia increases aid to the separatists. Last week, Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, emphasized the role of unmanned Russian surveillance drones that he said had been used for precision targeting of Ukrainian positions. But Ukraine is not a NATO ally, complicating the question of how to support its government.


“The debate is over how much to help Ukraine without provoking Russia,” said a senior official participating in the American discussions.


Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on Thursday, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, seemed to allude to the internal arguments when he said: “We have a very active, ongoing process to think through what support we may provide to Ukraine. That debate is ongoing.”


A senior Pentagon official said later that General Dempsey had been referring to all types of aid to Ukraine, including military assistance and intelligence sharing.


The Obama administration is giving Ukraine about $33 million in nonlethal support such as bomb-disposal equipment, radios and engineering equipment, and it plans to provide night-vision goggles. But there are bipartisan calls in Congress to supply weapons, ammunition, military vehicles and training as well.


“How can you possibly sit by and not give them military assistance with all the Russian arms flowing in?” Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, said in a telephone interview on Saturday.


The shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane, on top of Russia’s earlier shipments of heavy weaponry, were a perilous escalation of the crisis that threatened to menace all of Europe and the United States, General Dempsey said.


“You’ve got a Russian government that has made a conscious decision to use its military force inside another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives,” he said.

“They clearly are on a path to assert themselves differently not just in Eastern Europe, but Europe in the main, and towards the United States.”


If Pres Obama decides upon providing military intelligence and arms to the Ukraine government, fine in and of itself: that is something he should have done long ago. Still I doubt if this will happen, given his continuous flip-flopping and useless symbolic gestures. How long until we have troops on the ground in the Ukraine and get dragged into a full-scale war by his idiocy?

 

[h=1]AP Analysis: Putin stays on offense in Ukraine[/h]

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin might be expected to hunker down into defense mode as he is besieged by accusations of Russian involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. Instead he has stayed on offense and appears to positioning for the long game.






In his televised appearances since last Thursday's crash, Putin's demeanor hasn't wavered from his usual steely determination. He has allowed Russian media to propound theories blaming Ukrainian forces or suggesting a U.S hand in the crash, while refusing to deny such theories and indirectly placing responsibility on the Ukrainians.


Just hours after the crash, Putin laid the groundwork for this approach, saying at a meeting of economic officials that "the tragedy would not have happened" if Ukraine had not resumed its military actions against rebels in late June. "The state over whose territory this occurred bears responsibility for this awful tragedy," he said.


That argument neatly eludes a key issue: that the offensive was renewed after a 10-day unilateral ceasefire that the pro-Russia rebels ignored. Throughout the eastern Ukraine crisis, now in its fourth month, Putin and his officials have consistently portrayed the conflict as Ukraine's unprincipled assault on its own citizens, rather than as a move to take back a sizeable part of the country seized by heavily armed separatists.


The aim is to discredit the Kiev authorities without openly opposing them. Putin even spoke face-to-face in June with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who had just been elected following the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych in the wake of months of mass protests. But on Tuesday, he stepped up the aspersions in a meeting with his security council.


"True, they held elections after the takeover," Putin said. "However, for some strange reason, power ended up again in the hands of those who either funded or carried out this takeover."


This is where the long game appears to take shape.


By aggressively suggesting that Ukraine's instability is a prelude to Western designs on Russia, Putin not only deflects attention away from the plane crash, but strikes a chord in the Russian psyche. Russia characteristically sees itself as both a vast and mighty world power and as forever beleaguered by devious and violent forces dating back to the Mongol hordes and later including Napoleonic France, Poland, Sweden and, finally, Nazi Germany.


Even as he expresses concern about Russia's vulnerability, Putin also declares that "the recipes used regarding weaker states fraught with internal conflict will not work with us."


Resorting to the contradictory — yet popular — message may indicate the tight spot Putin finds himself in as he faces not only international opprobrium but the prospect of even more economic sanctions.


"He appears caught, first, by the possibility of very serious limitations from the West," analyst Fyodor Lukyanov was quoted as saying by the news website Ekspert.

"Secondly, the psychological pressure is very serious. And for Putin, I think, it's hard just on a human basis."


But Putin is the ultimate survivor. And barring evidence that irrefutably connects Russia with the plane's crash Putin likely has the stamina and determination for a long haul.


Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow think-tank, said that while many may hope that sanctions and the pressure on Putin will cause him to pull back, "those banking on this scenario will probably be disappointed."


"Putin is unlikely to stand down, or back off," he wrote in a commentary.


Putin is playing for the long range game, with patience and ruthlessness due to no one being willing to stand strong and fast against his actions. If Pres Obama had stood fast and strong at the start of the Ukraine crisis, instead of flip-flopping-failing as usual, this mess would have ended peacefully long ago.

 

[h=2]Ukraine fights "foreign mercenaries" in its east, says president[/h] Reuters Videos 1:19 mins
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko hails soldiers for forcing pro-Russian rebels out of several towns and cities, saying they're fighting "foreign mercenaries". Vanessa Johnston reports.

http://news.yahoo.com/video/ukraine-fights-foreign-mercenaries-east-195013355.html

 

[h=1]Russia stoic on sanctions threat, analysts worried[/h]
Moscow (AFP) - Russia has remained stoic about the threat of tighter Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis, but analysts are concerned that the uncertainty they generate could alone choke off growth.






The downing of a Malaysian passenger airliner over eastern Ukraine on July 17, which was carrying mostly Dutch passengers, has hardened Western resolve to impose tighter sanctions against Russia.


Western leaders have accused the Kremlin of supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine, a charge Moscow denies, including supplying the missiles believed to have brought down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 with the loss of all 298 on board.


The purpose of the sanctions is to force Moscow to use its influence with pro-Russian separatists to end fighting in eastern Ukraine.


The EU may as soon as this week restrict the ability of top Russian banks to raise funds in Europe, and ban new sales of weapons and much-needed technology for the energy sector.


The EU's steps follow moves by the United States, which has barred two major Russian financial institutions, Gazprombank and VEB, and two giant Russian energy firms, OA Novatek and Rosneft from US capital markets.




The measures were a step up from the initial round of sanctions which targeted officials and business executives, and analysts expect even broader sanctions should the crisis in Ukraine drag on or escalate.


- 'Sanctions boomerang' -


Russian officials have so far shrugged off the potential impact of sanctions.


After Washington announced its latest measures, Russian President Vladimir Putin said sanctions "have a boomerang effect" and the United States would suffer.

Russian officials announced this past week that instead of a slowdown they see the economy picking up. They will soon double the growth forecast, they said.

View gallery



Buk-2M air defence system launcher vehicles on Red Square in Moscow on May 9, 2013, during a Victory …



"We are moving at a level of about one percent annual growth in GDP ... and are likely to stay there until the end of the year," senior Kremlin advisor Andrei Belousov was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.


The Russian economy expanded by 1.3 percent last year, a far cry from the five to 10 percent growth rates posted during much of the previous decade.

Growth was already seen at risk of slowing down, as spare capacity in the economy has been exhausted and the government has been slow to enact reforms needed to achieve further gains.


Russia lowered its growth forecast to 0.5 percent earlier this year after the first round of Western sanctions. Although the initial measures imposed in April were limited, the uncertainty they generated alongside Moscow's annexation of Crimea and the violence in eastern Ukraine dented investor sentiment and sparked massive capital flight.


However, government officials believe that Russia has dodged a recession -- two consecutive quarters of contracting output -- and that data to be released soon will show the economy was flat in April through to June, after having contracted by 0.3 percent in the first quarter.




"The current sanctions will not have a macroeconomic effect, it is a problem for specific companies," said Belousov.


- Rate rise -


But Russia's central bank moved this past week to shield the country's economy from the impact of sanctions, hiking the main interest rate by half a point to 8.0 percent, a move analysts saw as an attempt to forestall a resurgence of capital flight.


The International Monetary Fund, however, was not so sanguine about the Russian economy's outlook, which it sees as likely to be brought to the brink of recession this year.


On Thursday, it slashed its growth forecast for Russia by 1.1 percentage point, to 0.2 percent, saying "activity in Russia decelerated sharply as geopolitical tensions further weakened demand".


Analysts at London-based Capital Economics warned the widespread presumptions that Russia will prove resilient to any additional sanctions could prove complacent.


"Even if the direct impact of sanctions is limited, the indirect impact can be significant," chief emerging markets economist Neil Shearing said in a recent research note.

He said that sanctions could spark another increase in the flow out of the country and deter a rise in foreign and domestic investment "that is needed to restore Russia's economy vigour over the long-run."


Berenberg bank recently lowered its forecast for the Russian economy this year to a contraction of 1.0 percent from its earlier estimate of 0 percent growth.

While Europe would have difficulty in cutting its imports of Russian natural gas, Russia needs massive investments and technology from Western companies to develop new oil and gas fields.


The sanctions being contemplated now by the EU could hit the Russian economy hard as the energy sector accounts for two-thirds of export earnings, according to data recently released by the US Energy Information Administration.


Russia, a leading grain exporter, could certainly put bread on the table in the unlikely case of wider sanctions hitting the food and agriculture sector.
But overall Russia imports over a third of its food, and also brings in large amounts of the seeds it needs.

 

[h=1]US says photos show Russian artillery fired on Ukraine[/h]

Washington (AFP) - The United States on Sunday released satellite images to bolster its claim that Russian artillery has fired across the border into Ukraine, targeting government forces in support of separatist rebels.





The four images, prepared by the office of the Director of National Intelligence and forwarded to reporters by the State Department, show sections of the Russia-Ukraine frontier.


Two show what the US government alleges are Russian batteries on its own territory -- one group of multiple rocket launchers and another of self-propelled howitzers.


Pictures also show impact craters near military positions on the Ukrainian side of the frontier.


A third picture shows what Washington alleges is Russian-supplied heavy weaponry being fired by separatists from within Ukraine.


"The wide area of impacts near the Ukrainian military units indicates fire from multiple rocket launchers. The bottom impact crater inset shows impacts within a local village," the caption said.


Moscow denies directly intervening in the Ukraine conflict and has accused Washington of mounting a smear campaign against it.


Washington turned up the pressure Thursday, alleging Russia had fired across the border and planned to deliver "heavier and more powerful multiple rocket launchers" to its rebel allies.


Then, the State Department cited only "intelligence information" to back up its claim before releasing the photographs on Sunday to strengthen its case.

Ukraine also claims two of its fighter jets were downed by missiles fired from Russian territory, but its US ally has yet to confirm this.


Fears of the damage that Russian arms could do in the hands of Ukraine's separatists increased sharply after a civilian Malaysian airliner was shot down over rebel territory with the loss of 298 lives.


Here is the simple question; given the non-stop lies, distortions, fabrications and more from the administration, how can we trust the information given to us? How can anyone trust anything they say, even with so-called 'proof' that is easily photo-shopped?

 

[h=1]Pushing locals aside, Russians take top rebel posts in east Ukraine[/h]
KIEV/DONETSK Ukraine (Reuters) - As Ukrainian troops gained ground in eastern Ukraine in early July, separatist leader Aleksander Borodai, a Russian national, left for Moscow for political consultations.


After what he described as successful talks with unnamed people there, he returned to the rebel stronghold of Donetsk to introduce a new senior figure in his self-proclaimed republic, a compatriot seasoned in the pro-Russian separatist movement in Moldova and a war between Russia and Georgia.


Vladimir Antyufeyev was named "deputy prime minister" by Borodai on July 10, one of several native Russians to have taken charge of the separatist rebellion in Ukraine's eastern regions.


Joining Borodai and rebel commander Igor Strelkov, Antyufeyev's arrival underlines a change at the top of the separatist movement, highlighting Moscow's involvement in the conflict, Western officials say. The Kremlin denies any involvement.


"There has been a dramatic change in the leadership of the Donetsk People's Republic over the past weeks, which certainly gives the impression of a much more hands-on Russian directive role," said Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. Ambassador to Kiev. "These individuals are in regular touch with authorities in Russia."


Ukrainian-born rebel leaders have been eased out, causing rifts among increasingly nervous separatists since a Malaysian airliner was downed over rebel-held territory just over a week ago.


Antyufeyev replaced Donetsk native, Alexander Khodakovsky, as the top security person in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic. Denis Pushilin, another local once titled the republic's president, was dismissed.


Khodakovsky remains a top commander but has taken an increasingly independent line, telling Reuters that separatists had the type of anti-aircraft missile system that Washington says brought the plane down, killing all 298 people on board. Borodai denied this assertion.


A Ukrainian official in the southern Azov Sea city port of Mariupol, which Kiev reclaimed from rebels last month, said Russians were taking over the entire rebel operation, sidelining or removing locals.



ANTYUFEYEV AKA SHEVTSOV


Antyufeyev, also known as Vadim Shevtsov, has a history of supporting pro-Russian separatist movements in the former Soviet Union, and brings a tough discipline and doggedness to the campaign in eastern Ukraine.


The balding, 63-year-old says he "fought national fascism" by supporting separatists in the pro-Russian region of Transdniestria in neighboring Moldova, and in the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia.


At his new office at the separatists' Donetsk headquarters, the Siberian-born Antyufeyev said he came to Ukraine because Russians were being killed by forces sent from Kiev.


"I know what it is to fight for the rights of the people ... I know what hot spots are," he said in an interview. A picture of Russian President Vladimir Putin looked down on the table where he sat.

View gallery

People ride a scooter past a destroyed pro-Russian fighters' APC near the city of Lisichansk, Lu …



Asked whether there were divisions among the rebels, Antyufeyev said: "I am the authority. I have no problems... If they do not understand that, that's their problem. I am a professional in making (people) understand."


He earned a fearsome reputation when he served in Transdniestria, which split from Moldova in 1990, as the head of security operations for 20 years.


Dismissed in 2012 when his ally was replaced as leader of the tiny sliver of land, he barricaded himself for three days in his study and refused to leave.


The EU first blacklisted Antyufeyev over his role in Transdniestria in 2004. Though it later suspended that decision, it has now blacklisted him again over Ukraine, imposing assets freezes and a travel ban on him.


One person who had been questioned by Antyufeyev in Transdniestria on suspicion of spying for Moldova said he was a tenacious interrogator. Speaking on condition of anonymity, for fear of reprisal, the person said Antyufeyev was "a professional", capable of being sociable and polite, always rigidly following the chosen line. With a smile on his face, Antyufeyev would exert moral pressure, the person said.


Oazu Nantoi, a Moldovan political analyst and expert on Transdniestria, predicted Antyufeyev would aim to further destabilize Donetsk and impede Kiev's efforts to regain control.


"He is no romantic who came to fire a few shots. He knows what his tasks are. Just as he did in Transdniestria," he said. "Antyufeyev knows how to operate in such situations, how to suppress opposition and dissent... create an atmosphere of fear in which people will support any action by the separatists."



BORODAI'S FRIENDS


Washington says the influx of Russians into the upper ranks of the separatists is matched by an increased number of heavy weaponry coming across the Russian border into Ukraine, a response to advances made by the Ukrainian army on the ground.


Though Borodai insists the separatists' weaponry comes from depots they overran while seizing territory, he admits "volunteers" from Russia keep on reinforcing the rebels' ranks.


He calls his Russian trio volunteers and says their presence in the Donetsk region, or Donbass, is proof of the Russian nation's support for the separatists' cause.


"The people of Donbass rose on their own. It is normal and natural that we ended up heading this movement because of certain competences, our abilities," he told a news conference in Donetsk earlier this month.


"There will be more and more people from Moscow in the DNR (Donetsk People's Republic)," said Borodai, flanked by Strelkov and Antyufeyev.


The stout Borodai denies having ever worked for the Russian security services though admits knowing many people there because of his past work as a "professional political expert."


He and Strelkov say they first met in 1996 in the Russian region of Chechnya, where Moscow has waged two wars against Islamist separatists since 1994. Borodai says Strelkov has long been his "very good acquaintance".


Both said they served in Transdniestria and, more recently, in Crimea. The West says they were aides to the pro-Russian separatist leader of the Black Sea peninsula who was instrumental in Moscow's annexation earlier this year.


The two are on both the EU and U.S. sanctions list. Kiev and the European Union say Strelkov, whose real name is Igor Girkin, in fact served in Russia's GRU military intelligence.


Strelkov says he served at the rank of colonel in Russia's FSB security service until quitting at the end of March, and has had battlefield experience in Transdniestria, in Bosnia's conflict and in both Chechen wars.


While he commanded rebel forces in Slaviansk, the town became a citadel of fierce resistance where at least two Ukrainian military helicopters and one warplane were brought down, giving him a hero status among separatists.


Abandoning Slaviansk to Kiev's troops on July 4-5 has, however, dented his reputation and upset some rebels.


Strelkov's acquaintances and former colleagues say he developed a reputation as an uncompromising idealist while with the FSB, though his "difficult" character may have been behind what they say was in fact his dismissal from the service.


They say the ouster of Ukraine's former, Moscow-allied president Viktor Yanukovich and Kiev's pivot to the West was a turning point for him.


An acquaintance in Moscow, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity, said Strelkov was outraged by the events in Kiev and believed Russia must not lose Ukraine. The acquaintance added that Strelkov knew Borodai in Moscow and the two helped one another in business.



Strelkov left his home in a Moscow suburb in February traveling to Crimea where he occupied the regional parliament along with other fighters shortly before Russia annexed the predominantly ethnic Russian region.


He said people he had known from Crimea then asked him to come to eastern Ukraine.


According to his former colleagues at the FSB, successor to the Soviet KGB, one of his favorite books was the Soviet-era science fiction novel "Hard to be God" - a tale of an agent on a mission to a different planet.

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry agreed in a phone conversation on Sunday on the importance of ensuring a swift ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, a Foreign Ministry statement in Moscow said.
But the State Department said Kerry did not accept Lavrov's denial that heavy weapons from Russia were contributing to the conflict and urged him "to stop the flow of heavy weapons and rocket and artillery fire from Russia into Ukraine, and to begin to contribute to deescalating the conflict."


"During a phone call this afternoon, Secretary Kerry urged Foreign Minister Lavrov to stop the flow of heavy weapons and rocket and artillery fire from Russia into Ukraine, and to begin to contribute to deescalating the conflict," the State Department said in a readout of the call. "He did not accept Foreign Minister Lavrov’s denial that heavy weapons from Russia were contributing to the conflict."


Washington and the West accuse Moscow of supporting rebels fighting Ukrainian troops in the east of the former Soviet republic with training, military-grade weapons, and shelling by Russian troops on Ukrainian positions across the border.


On July 17, Russian-backed rebels shot downMalaysia Flight MH17, killing all 298 people on board. A senior State Department official stressed an additional point of the phone call in a subsequent email, saying Kerry "underlined our support for a mutual cease fire verified by the OSCE and reaffirmed our strong support for the international investigation to show the facts of MH17."



Moscow denies involvement in east Ukraine. The Russian statement described the crisis is an "internal conflict."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/kerr...meddling-in-east-ukraine-2014-7#ixzz38iapejQ5
​

 

Ok maybe I am missing something here. I have always thought war was war, meaning killing and blowing stuff up of the enemy and the only rules are the last man standing wins... Then i seen the article below and its really stupid to me when they talk about laws and rules and war crimes...

If we have all these rules why not just ban war and make it completely illegal.....

 

That makes too much sense. People who have never fought in a war make the rules. They have absolutely no idea what war is about.
If it is important enough to go to war with another country it is important enough to kill every single person of that country. Anything less is not worth war.

 

[h=2]State releases images it says show Russia fired on Ukraine[/h] Reuters Videos 0:49 mins
The U.S. State Department releases images that it says offer evidence that Russian forces fired across the border at the Ukrainian military last week. Nathan Frandino reports.

http://news.yahoo.com/video/state-releases-images-says-show-202905982.html

 

Personally I think that with our nation, when it comes to conflict of any kind, you do one of two things: total commitment to win completely, and then get out at once; or do not go after the enemy.

 

[h=1]Downing of MH17 jet in Ukraine 'may be war crime' - UN[/h]
The downing of Malaysia Airlines jet MH17 in eastern Ukraine may constitute a "war crime", the UN human rights chief Navi Pillay says.


Ukraine and Western governments believe pro-Russian rebels shot down MH17, using a Russia-supplied missile system.


Moscow and the rebels have blamed Ukrainian forces for the plane crash.


All 298 people on board - mostly Dutch - died on 17 July. Heavy fighting has again prevented an international police force from reaching the crash site.


The Ukrainian military said it was battling separatists for control of several towns near the site in eastern Ukraine.


The international police want to help secure the huge site so that plane wreckage and human remains can be examined by international crash experts.


Most of the bodies have been removed, many of them repatriated to the Netherlands.



Heavy fighting
"This violation of international law, given the prevailing circumstances, may amount to a war crime," Ms Pillay, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said of the downing of MH17.


"Every effort will be made to ensure that anyone committing serious violations of international law including war crimes will be brought to justice, no matter who they are," Ms Pillay said.


At least 1,129 people have been killed and 3,442 wounded in the Ukraine conflict since mid-April, the UN said.


The conflict has displaced more than 200,000 people, many of whom have fled east to neighbouring Russia.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday he hoped that monitors from the OSCE international security body would be able to deploy on the Ukraine-Russia border in the next few days.


In a statement on Monday, the Ukrainian military said it had "entered" the towns of Shakhtarsk and Torez and was working to seize control of Pervomaysk and Snizhne - all close to the crash site of MH17.


A team of Australian and Dutch police and forensic experts was forced to abandon attempts to reach the site on Monday due to the security situation in the area. It was the second failed attempt in as many days.


The army is also trying to take control of two main roads in eastern Ukraine, which the government in Kiev believes to be vital supply lines from Russia for rebel forces in Donetsk.


In the past 24 hours there has been heavy artillery fire at the city of Horlivka, where several civilians were killed.


In the city of Donetsk at least three people died in shelling too, the municipal authorities say. And there are reports of civilian casualties as a result of the shelling of Luhansk, which is also held by the rebels.


Last week, the US-based Human Rights Watch said both sides in the conflict were using unguided Grad rockets against civilian areas, in violation of human rights norms, and urged them to stop doing so. It documented several attacks in which, it said, the rockets were apparently fired by government forces.


The US has produced what it calls satellite evidence that rockets have been fired at Ukrainian forces from Russian soil.


Russia denies that any of its forces are helping the rebels.